Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners ASML Holding ASML-Q HOLD Mar 11, 2024

It makes equipment that is used by semi-conductor manufacturers. It is more cyclical than the semi-conductor sector, which outside of AI shifts is already facing a flat to downward cycle.

Fell below 200-day MA in summer, he got stopped out. Would revisit the name once the dust settles. 30x forward PE for 20% earnings growth. Trying to base. Long-term AI sector thesis very much intact. The leader in its niche.

Last October, warning shock for chip investors. Cut 2025 guidance. He got out of the way. Lithography is a cyclical business. If you're still holding, sell.

Last year was rough, but is holding up better this year. Long term for her, though it may doing nothing in the near future as the Nasdaq stays under pressure.

The do a lot of business with China, and Trump refuses to help any Dutch company do business in China, a business ASML needs. (Biden felt the same.) ASML controls a crucial part in the entire semiconductor chain.

It reports Wednesday. Is afraid it will miss like last time. Not exactly opaque--a complicated company.

His holding in the space instead of TSM.

Hardware makers are in a tricky spot. Sold, mainly because so many headlines involve the US trying to clamp down on China's access to everything related to semiconductors. Part of China's response to that was to buy up as much non-advanced-edge chip equipment as it could. An overhang going forward.

See his Past Top Picks for a name he likes a lot more.

They report Wednesday. If they report good numbers, it could spark a round of semis buying.

He bought into weakness (not strength). He bought it as an AI play. TSM is their biggest customer. They've had a problem with China for a while, though boasts over a 50% profit margin. They're turning a corner, because the AI conversation has shifted from laptops and PCs to going mobile. So, they will need to buy new equipment, and this benefits ASML.