Bill Harris, CFA
Alberta Oil Sands
AOS-X
BUY
Apr 18, 2011
Invested in the flow through shares for the tax deduction, which lowers the cost base. Oil sands assets are only worth something if you can produce oil and turn it into a big business that makes money. The land itself doesn’t mean anything. They have money and can keep moving the project forward. Incredibly cheap.
Has a number of issues with this one including the government fiscal regime changes and the shortage of labour. The new partnership with Connacher (CLL-T) gives them the ability and a strategy as to how to bring the production on.
Like all the micro cap names it had a huge run and got smacked down when the oil sands euphoria left. Oil sands project don't need a lot of land if the right resource is under the land. In order to determine this, you need a lot of land to go hunting. They have a lot of land and have found some striking samples. If you want to own and small-cap oil sands play this is not a bad one to own.
Oil sands are very tough for any junior company. You need at least 10,000 barrels a day to make a profit. 30,000 glowing barrels would be $300 million, which would be very difficult to raise. Not sure the assets are good enough to be a takeover target.
One of a host of Junior oil sands companies that have opened up in the last few years. Have pretty decent packages in bitumen and potential properties but are quite a few years away from actual production and having got the approval for their project yet. Very volatile. This would be more suitable for someone with a high-risk tolerance.
You want to be in oil sands related stocks from around now through until May. On a relative strength basis, it is already outperforming the market. Resistance is around $.40 so technically it is already lining up for an upside move. Technically acting very well and you are about ready to enter a period of seasonal strength.
Wouldn’t buy this right now. Doesn’t seem to be any interest. Broke into new territory in 2010 but fell back. Still trying to break into new territory but is in a sideways motion in a range that is about $0.50 on the high end and $0.30 on the low end.