Stockchase Opinions

Brendan Caldwell Advanced Micro Devices AMD-Q WATCH Mar 30, 2022

AMD vs. NVDA He doesn't know which will be the winner. Both will continue to be strong, as there's lots of retooling and restructuring to come in IT. The sector has been very strong, but is under pressure. Taiwan is a big producer of chips, and he's concerned about China invading, though not soon. Both companies are in quite secular businesses.
$122.080

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

Though decent value, it can fall further. It's second place in a very competitive business. NVDA has been sucking all the air out of the room. He won't touch semis unless the sector is really beaten up and broken. That said, the CEO is very smart and they have some good products. Problem is, there's so much passive money in the market, especially chips, and that excess needs to be burned off.

BUY

It reports Tuesday. In the wake of DeepSeek, AMD's cheaper than NVDA's GPU suddenly looked more attractive thatn NVDA's chips.

WATCH

Powerful competitor to INTC, but has struggled against NVDA because of their clunky software. Results yesterday disappointed. Well positioned, valuation not as stratospheric as NVDA's. Semis are under pressure, and a lot of people want part of the AI pie.

DON'T BUY

Technically, looks challenged. Down ~57% from highs back in March 2024. Below 200-day MA, which is trending lower. Instead, buy NVDA on its momentum and stronger sentiment.

DON'T BUY

Makes great chips. It's software, not hardware. Hasn't been able to deliver the ecosystem to handle AI workloads effectively or reliably. He'd be much more bullish if it could get its act together on this.

Not gained market share. Not even close to NVDA. Success with hyperscalers, but not with the average customer. Has taken data centre market share.

DON'T BUY
Trade it after today's market-wide sell-off?

No. He would limit his exposure to any semis, given Trump's tariffs and embargo on China.

HOLD

A year ago, everyone thought that AMD was the next best competitor to NVDA. Lost second place to AVGO. Production issues, as so earnings disappointed in February. Coming back, production for GPUs back in place. They'll come back.

TOP PICK

NVDA may be the better company, but AMD has more upside. Is volatile, though. When this rallies, perhaps next year, he will divest. Expects this to rise $20-30.

(Analysts’ price target is $129.96)
HOLD

Although she doesn't own it she has traded it. She is cautious on the run-up and AI sector but it could show good growth and there is still room to run in the sector. It scores 8 out of 10 fundamentally. There is a mix of buy and hold on the street and analysts see an upside of 12 to 13% in valuation. You could keep holding it but also do some trimming.

TRADE
AMD vs. Shopify

Prefers SHOP. AMD is fully priced. He targets $125 for SHOP. Don't sell AMD, just raise some calls against it.