Stock price when the opinion was issued
This has the Aero plan business with Air Canada (AC-T), and that contract comes up for renewal in 2020. That is a massive part of their business. They are going to have to renegotiate the contract, and one of 2 or 3 things is going to happen. They are going to have to pay Air Canada for the rights to continue, and/or Air Canada is going to take it back. For Air Canada, this is a massive program. Until there is more clarity on that contract, people have to be nervous as to how it is going to turn out.
Their Air Canada (AC-T) contract doesn’t expire for another 3 years. They will continue to generate good cash flow from that contract until it ends. The balance sheet is OK, but not pristine and isn’t really that problematic. Even though Air Canada does not represent a big percentage of revenues, flights in and of themselves are a big percentage of their revenues. The true concern here is what do the 2 banks do, which have contracts that expire in 2024. They may look at what Air Canada did and follow their example. That still gives 7 years before it gets to that point. There has been an overreaction on the stock. A very well-managed company. He would call this a Trade rather than an Investment, something you don’t buy and park it for 5 years.
One reason he has not invested in this is that he has had trouble understanding the accounting. They have adjusted EBITDA, and sometimes they adjust the adjusted EBITDA. A very bizarre accounting. Also, the stock has not performed very well technically.