Opinions
Ryan Modesto
Altus Group
AIF-T
TOP PICK
Apr 11, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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This is involved in real estate, and the real estate holdings in Canada have seen a bit of a pullback recently. Dividends have been pretty steady, giving about a 2% yield. It’s not enough to get him too interested, especially since he sees some slowing in the housing market. He would look at this if he got some actual real negative housing news.
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AIF saw a sharp drop following its Q3 financial results reported in early November. The stock's struggles have been driven by the slowdown in the real estate market and particularly, concerns regarding commerical real estate. Valuation has now come down to a more reasonable 18.3x forward-earnings. Outlook for 2024 does forecast a bounce back with EPS growth of ~42% and sales growth of ~12%, then moderate growth across both in 2025. The potential bounce back and growth outlook is a decent reason to hold, but it is fair to expect AIF to struggle for a bit following the weak Q3 and negative market trends. We are fine holding AIF to see how sentiment regarding real estate fares in 2024 and how the company bounces back from the weak Q3.
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A real estate advisory consultant firm, and also trying to build end to end software service solutions for real estate data and real estate analytics. This is what the markets are really starting to get interested in now. A higher margin business and recurring revenues. There is a good short term catalyst here, where they actually own 14% of a private company called Real Matters, which sooner or later is going to IPO with a possible $1 billion valuation. Dividend yield of 2%. (Analysts’ price target is $36.50.)