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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Air Canada (A) AC.A-T WATCH Mar 11, 2013

[Did not specify the .A or .B shares] Airline industry collectively has never turned a profit. Bad place to invest. But you can trade it.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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$2.620

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Transportation

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HOLD

Stronger Cdn$ is helping them. A terrific pattern. Had a low in August, rallied up and then had a higher low and then it broke out. Airlines are doing rather well. If you are thinking of buying, wait a bit.

DON'T BUY

Suffering from the same things that a lot of airlines are suffering from, high fuel costs, high maintenance costs, etc. and until there is some appreciable increase in fares or some other way, he would stay away from it.

DON'T BUY

Airlines are in tough shape. Fuel prices are rising. There is a real prospect of bankruptcy here.

DON'T BUY

Avoids industries that are highly capital intensive, low margin and unionized, subject to fuel price increases.

TOP PICK

9.25% Senior Secured Notes maturing Jan 8/15. This has a tremendous amount of asset coverage. Have roughly $1 billion in debt at this level and there is more than $2 billion that is covering it. Fundamentals for Air Canada continue to improve, almost on a daily basis.

HOLD

The only word for airline stocks is ‘Youza’. It has been almost parabolic. They have had a couple of regular periods of consolidation. Don’t buy now, but wait for a consolidation.

WEAK BUY

There could be quite a bit of upside. They were managed quite stupidly for a number of years. But now there is a danger from the discount airlines. The debt load is still heavy. He could see it for a good momentum play.

HOLD

Spent the brutal years tidying itself up and the airlines are on an upturn. The company seems to be on a role. It is probably still going up from here, but he would not buy it now.

COMMENT

This stock actually has upside. It is probably undervalued about 20%. They are expanding their capacity about 9%, upgrading some aircraft. United Airlines trades at 50% of revenues. Air Canada is at 20%. If they can pay down their debt then the stock has upside.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA Air Canada (A) AC.A-T WATCH Mar 11, 2013

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