Opinions
Christine Hughes
Air Canada
AC-T
HOLD
Dec 10, 2013
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Premium contentCanada's largest airline just announced resumption of service from the nation's capital to London UK -- signs of global schedule shuffles and adjusting to declining US bookings. We like that debt is being aggressively retired and shares bought back. It trades at 6x earnings, 2x book and supports a robust 108% ROE. We recommend setting a stop at $9, looking to achieve $18 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $23.42)It is trading near the levels seen at the early stages of the pandemic. Trade war fears have dragged down the airlines but this is overdone. Air Canada is at an 80% booking level which is normal. Its flights to the U.S. are down but international business is strong. It makes more money on international flights than domestic. The price is still OK. Buy 14 Hold 2 Sell 1
(Analysts’ price target is $23.09)Premium contentPremium contentWe reiterate AC as a TOP PICK. The company is adjusting to uncertainty over North America air traffic, which is a result of their well diversified route portfolio. Cash reserves continue to grow as debt is retired and shares bought back. It trades at 10x earnings, 3x book and supports a ROE of 125%. We recommend trailing up the stop (from$13.00) to $14.50, looking to achieve $24.00 -- upside potential of 20%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $23.74)Started to put in a bit of a bottom a couple of months ago, as did many other airlines. This name's had a big move higher. There are 2 ways to consolidate: in price (sharp pullback) or in time (move sideways). Thinks we'll see consolidation at least for a bit, perhaps with a slight downward bias. (In tech analysis it's called a "flag".) Once done, it should resume the uptrend and move higher.
Once we get into August, put on the brakes or at least assess the risk.
It is a trading opportunity and not a long term hold. There is still upside and there has been insider buying. It has announced an issuer bid. 18% of shares have been bought and cancelled in a year so revenue per share is going up. It is trading at a discount to its American peers and to its historical valuation.
Looking back at when the US airlines got restructured and Delta went from $2 to $30. All those people that sold it at $8 were kicking themselves a few years later. In the next couple of years, she thinks this company could be $30. They are negotiating the pension deficit right now. If they can get that down by another billion dollars, it will be hugely positive for the stock. Working with airport authorities to bring revenues, that are not flight related such as restaurants, etc., to improve the profitability in order to bring down landing fees.