Apple IncAAPLPAST TOP PICKApr 06, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Today, it hit an all-time high, after last night's Midterm elections, as opposed to yesterday when shares were hammered over the rising cost of memory chips and gross margins were slipping. Apple said chip prices will continue to rise. Shares soared today, he thinks, because the market view on data centres has changed radically because of the election which could lead to a slowdown in data centre building. In turn, this would raise the supply of D-RAM chips whose prices could plummet--and benefit Apple which needs those chips.
In recent months, a recipient of a lot of the rotation away from the AI theme and the big hyperscalers that are spending massive amounts of $$ and raising massive amounts of debt. AAPL doesn't play in that space.
That's pushed up the stock, which is wonderful, but now it's trading at 40x PE. At that valuation, earnings must be better than fantastic to maintain that multiple. That's not likely. He guesses that the stock is 25-30% overvalued at the moment. If anything goes even a little bit wrong, you could see AAPL easily fall 5-10% after market.
Risk from China is that it's a big part of its distribution for iPhones. Recent quarters have seen challenges in terms of competition.
High risk right now.
Still has a bit of a valuation issue, north of 30x PE. They've delivered, and will continue to do so. Its OS dominates the world at 70% of mobile devices, which will continue to generate growth. Doesn't know what'll happen to iPhone sales in China.
Other areas in tech are looking much, much cheaper. AAPL's getting a premium valuation, which it'll have to continue to earn. Not enough there to make it to the top of his list right now.
Her team is less positive on consumer spending, so they're not in this name. Key for long-term success will be how they embed AI into the iPhone. Not an impressive job thus far. Management changes could result in better innovation on AI -- has potential, but needs to show it.
For her, it's less about the foldable phone and more about a unique AI platform.
It has enormous free cash flow and has 20% of the world's smart phone market. It is not a hyper-scaler name so does not have hundreds of millions in capital expenditures like the other hyper-scalers. The service part of its business is adding growth with an overall earnings growth rate of 12 to 15% along with solid margins. AI is embedded in partnerships with different companies. It is at its 200 day moving average so maybe it is time to add.