Alcoa (AA)

(A Top Pick November 28, 2017. Down 4%). Alcoa suffered from the trade barriers, but with the USMCA agreements, he thinks that the tariffs will come off and Alcoa will do better.

Metals look interesting, but he would consider other names before Alcoa. Hold, don't sell this.

Aluminum remains a growth metal. He owns it because Aluminum is in a sweet spot as Chinese production has come off. You rent this stock, you don't own it. It is the right moment in time for this one.

A cyclical stock. Aluminum is in a sweet spot as the Chinese cut back on capacity. There'll be a premium of aluminum prices. Rent, don't buy this stock. There could be share buybacks and dividend increases next year. Earnings will
double in the next three years.

A tough one to analyse. They’ve put themselves in the position of being a low-cost producer of aluminum. Being a low-cost producer of aluminum is a mixed blessing, because you have high cost Chinese competitors that don't have to make money. They can lose unlimited sums.

Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

The only mining stock he owns, because aluminum is a growth metal. Because it is light, every new generation of cars and planes has more aluminum. Aluminum has been in a down cycle for a long time. Alcoa has split itself into 2 companies. For aluminum, the up cycle is now here. This is a cyclical stock, so when it starts going up even further and looks really, really cheap, it is probably time to start looking at selling it, because it is a pure aluminum play.

Chart shows this was in a gently trending down-trend since February, and then broke out in June. The stock looks great, plus it is metal products and materials seem to be doing okay right now. The price of aluminum seems to be in an uptrend right now.