AlcoaAATOP PICKNov 28, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 10, 2026. Market Open.
He really likes commodities. There's a major commodity secular movement happening. Gold, silver, and uranium have all popped, and there's a rotation within the commodity space. All that AI stuff involves either rare earth or base metals.
This name is a base metal. Aluminum trade was soft for a while, but has picked up. These metals will be used everywhere, so he likes the demand. Yield is 1.08%.
Spun off its Arconic unit last year, making it a pure aluminum play again. Aluminum is in the sweet spot of metals, because it is a growth metal. Because it’s a light and strong metal, every new generation of cars and planes uses more aluminum, being more fuel efficient. They have a pristine balance sheet and minimal debt. Throwing off massive free cash flow. After years of suffering through very weak pricing environment for aluminum and alumina, the pricing cycle is starting to turn. A low-cost producer and poised to generate significant earnings growth. Trading at 28.7X trailing 12 months earnings, and he is looking for earnings to double over the next 3 years. As a cyclical company, you have to buy when the PE is high, and sell when the PE is low and it looks like a cheap stock. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)