HOLD

Super bullish on AI, it's just getting started. We're going to run out of power before we run out of demand for AI. Need energy, cooling, construction, labour, chips, racks. Hard to tell what future's going to bring. Demand for data centres will be a bumpy story as the economy ebbs and flows.

Nuclear is exciting, but unsure how quickly you're going to make money. CCO is a great business with great operations. Good for those who bought the dip in April. He'd prefer nat gas via TOU.

BUY

Natural gas play, and a more stable way to provide energy for data centres.

COMMENT

With interest rates not coming down as fast as expected, and with volatility in the market, there are concerns about its deal-making ability. Expects to see a lot of liquid products over the next 1-2 years from this name and its peers. Headwinds from tariffs and regulations, but those are dissipating at the moment.
 
Doesn't really have an opinion on KKR. The love of his life is BN, and they've owned it for quite a long time. Likes that it collects giant fees from diversified assets. His preferred play on alternative assets.

BUY

The love of his life, which they've owned for quite a long time. Likes that it collects giant fees from diversified assets. His preferred play on alternative assets. Headwinds from tariffs and regulations, but those are dissipating at the moment. 

Terrific track record long term, despite this year being tough. Compounded shareholder return of 18% over last 30 years. Growth will come from selling new products to retail investors in insurance, real estate, private equity. Volatile markets will work in its favour.

BUY

Aerospace parts. Serial acquirer. A hard business to break into, especially as you have to trust the partners that are making parts for you. Valuations in the space have gone straight up, as demand for air travel is exploding. Extremely bullish on the name. Likes management's ability to raise prices, keep costs low, and allocate cashflow at high rates of return.

BUY
Seven & I negotiations.

At least they're talking now, trying to figure out how they can get regulator approval (the biggest concern). Success would give ATD 80k more stores, a near-monopoly in the US, so some would have to be sold. That's a distraction. Wrestling with a low-income consumer who's having troubles with inflation and trading down, which hurts the bottom line.

For him, it's a "heads you win, tails you win" situation. If successful, ATD can improve operations and pay back acquisition debt quickly. If not, they'll do other deals and buy back a ton of stock. An absolute bargain. Once we get through the issues with the US and NA consumer, this will return to compounding greatness as before.

SELL

Well run for a while, but lost its way. Offer on the table isn't the greatest, as it will be a taxable event. Stock's picked up lately. Doesn't believe there will be a competing offer because it's such a mixed-up company. Appeals only to Sunoco. Tender and move on. Look at ATD instead.

DON'T BUY

Long-term chart demonstrates the excellent business and operations. We all need to eat. Focus going forward will be autonomous farming vehicles -- it will sell software to farmers as well as equipment. Valuation will ebb and flow with food and commodity prices, as well as the economy. He stays away from commodity-type businesses.

DON'T BUY

Trading at extremely high valuation. Cult stock. Can't really value it on today's earnings. Have to hope the battery technology takes off and that robotaxis becomes a huge thing. Lots of irons in the fire. If you believe the Musk-hype, this is a must-own.

For the rest of us, who can't cope with the valuation, very hard to buy. Sometimes the growth comes and it works out, and then you wonder why you didn't pay 800x PE ;)

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 07/24, Up 16%)

Still loves it. Highly necessary products. Licensing fees go up every year. Next leg up for growth would be benchmarks for private equity, and they're working on it. Strength of international markets this year should give them an excellent year.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 07/24, Down 4%)

One of the best businesses in the world, with high ROIC. Spent a bunch of $$ on competing with online realtors, with no profits yet. Activist wants it figured out by year's end or to move on; company will win either way (either the venture will take off, or the $$ will be redeployed elsewhere). Very attractive valuation.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 07/24, Up 32%)

Another of the best in the world with a great business model. Getting into so many areas. Sky's the limit. Economic downturns will affect earnings, but long-term runway and tailwinds are intact.

COMMENT
Potentially higher US withholding tax rate.

He's more freaked out about what happens in 2027 if Carney brings back the capital gains increase. If you're rich, get used to being taxed more because NA is broke and the deficits are out of control. He saw that Carney wants to fast-track infrastructure spending, but where's this money going to come from? It's going to come from taxing the rich.

It absolutely won't change at his firm how they make investment decisions and buying US stocks. They don't buy stocks for the dividends. He focuses on long-term trends of the companies they own and what's going on in front of him right now. Maybe Trump will TACO this one too.

DON'T BUY

Notoriously terrible businesses. Tight margins, large capex. Travel slows down in tough economic times. Non-sustainable business model for long-term growth. Trying so hard to raise fees on everything. Avoid all airlines.

DON'T BUY

Dividend cut was the right thing to do and stabilized the stock. Business model facing lots of challenges right now. Lots of competition on satellites and mobile. Revenues aren't growing. Looking for alternatives to break into broadband in the US, doesn't seem a smart decision. Wants to see asset sales and debt paid down. Hard to see a catalyst. He owns no telcos now.