Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Keith Richards commented about whether ARX-T, PYPL-Q, NWH.UN-T, AMD-Q, AC-T, UBER-N, BIR-T, SHOP-T, MCD-N, NVDA-Q, TSM-N, META-Q, GOOG-Q, ENB-T, ATRL-T, EWZ-N, TLT-Q, BN-T, ATD-T, CAR.UN-T, CB-N, MSFT-Q, ADBE-Q, CSU-T, MU-Q, PXT-T, MFC-T, TSM-N, ZWT-T, QQQT-T, AIQ-Q, V-N, HXS-T are stocks to buy or sell.
The Canadian dollar will get weaker, before it gets stronger, because our central bank has been more aggressive in cutting interesting rates than the US, and he expects this to continue, 25-50 points by year's end vs. 25 in the US. Also, weaker oil prices will make the CAD weaker down to 70 cents in the next 6 months. But after that, you will like the Canadian economy more.
What happened in the last decade in bonds won't happen going forward. The world be slightly more inflationary going forward, but nowhere as bad as post-Covid, like 2.5-3%. There will be government deficits (a major problem), so there will be a need to finance that debt. The 60/40 portfolio no longer works. Look at XBB. Today, the best you'll earn in a bond portfolio is 3-3.5%; you have credit risk and capital risk of inflation. Not bonds, but private credit will give a much better fixed income return for the next decade.
In an election year October can be more volatile than usual and there is potential volatility in the next few weeks. Retail investors are bullish and that historically is a bearish signal. The VIX is trending up and the market is trending up at the same time and that's unusual. Institutional investors are reducing their exposure to stocks so the the retail and institutional groups are diverging. We are just tipping into bullish sentiment but if it goes really deep then that is a reliable signal.
The caller was wondering if we are at a market top and should we use daily or weekly charts to determine if there will be a market top reversal. This involves macro analysis which he a does a lot of. He uses weekly charts and the 200 day moving average. Look for higher highs and higher lows in the weekly charts. As soon as the last low is taken out and there is a break of the 200 day moving average it is a strong indicator that the former trend will turn into a base or a downturn.
ZWT pays you income using covered calls. But it can be a little volatile; it depends on your risk profile.