This year, Apple has given market performance, not bad. But this will be a slow iPhone upgrade path, incremental. Also, how much AI sentiment is baked into the stock. She predicts 5% revenue and earnings growth with a lot of stock buybacks. It's a long-term story of a beloved stock. It will continue to be a market performer and holders won't sell it.
How much are expectations already built into the stock? In the past year, it has grown its EPS by 415% and sales by 195%. Investors have gotten used to this eye-popping growth, so he can't understand where future growth will come from. We know there's a global push to use AI, so who's left? It's unlikely past huge gains will happen again, though modest gains can still occur.
Wait next week for their report to hear about their AI initiatives, which will be available only in English. So, overseas markets will be less excited. It will be a slow, underwhelming iPhone upgrade cycle. He notices that customers are buying the high-margin iPhone Pro Max phone--upgraders prefer the bigger, better phone. At 23x 2025 adjusted EBITDA, Apple is not cheap, above the average of 20x. Again, watch for the AI report.
Energy has been the worst sector, but now it's the cheapest at 10x price to free cash flow and 12x PE. The median return in S&P energy is -3% vs. 30% for all S&P. 54% of IEO's names are negative, but he predicts some will be discovered this quarter. Problem is WTI is up 1% this year at $71. When WTI moves up, so will these stocks.
He bought it because he wanted defence exposure. Unfortunately, the world will demand defense (Middle East, Ukraine, BRIC). LMT's order book for fighter jets is strong. He bought a small position, because the valuation is high--he bit the bullet. He will add on weakness. Their last report showed signs of life in the margins, now that supply chain problems are gone.
She added more. Is confident. The stock is breaking out now. Next week, megatechs like Microsoft and Apple, will report on their AI initiatives. All roads lead to NVDA who will enjoy ongoing strong demand for their AI chips. When this has sold down, she closed her call positions as a way to play volatility.