Today, Danesh Rohinton commented about whether TRYG-CPH, MA-N, LIN-N, CCO-T, MSFT-Q, WCN-T, RY-T, NVDA-Q, TSM-N, INTC-Q, CVE-T, AMZN-Q, SHOP-T, IBM-N, EW-N, F-N, BCE-T, X-T, CNQ-T, CSH.UN-T, NVDA-Q, CLS-T, DIS-N, COST-Q, ENB-T, AEM-T, TSLA-Q are stocks to buy or sell.
Like an oasis in the consumer desert. Its value proposition is that it's the cheapest scale-buyer, and passes savings along to the consumer. A unit growth story. Trades at almost 50x earnings.
When you think of growth stocks, think of their PEG ratios. This one is definitely on the upper end. Though quality of the business is about as good as it comes, there's a better entry point to be had.
There are 2 or 3 smaller brands that do the same thing, such as Sam's Club. COST used to trade in the 30s, but now it's closer to 50x. So if you own it today, you have to be ready for the 20-30% drawdown on just mean reversion on the multiple.
Going through a rough patch. The parks have become more expensive. Challenges in streaming, playing significant catchup to NFLX. He'd pass. Though valuation is as cheap as it's been in a decade, it's for good reason. EBITDA pressures are building in a lot of different ways.
There is an opportunity for it to turn things around in streaming. But when you're playing the #2 to NFLX, which has already achieved a huge subscriber base and is now pushing price and content, DIS has to disproportionately win in the content creation game. DIS doesn't actually own ESPN right; it has to bid on them. For example, the NBA recently went with AMZN.
With this type of stock, he asks himself whether it's just not better to own NVDA? CLS is benefiting today from data centre buildout and relationship with GOOG (an open secret). Those dynamics don't make them the best position in the value chain relative to NVDA and other players.
It's the end of the bullwhip effect. NVDA is the real, bleeding-edge innovator in the ecosystem. Sell CLS, and roll the gains into NVDA.
Neutral. Valuation's OK. Right point in the ecosystem. Retirement residences are a structurally growing part of the market. But you're more beholden in the short term on individual capital allocations, which are fine for this name.
It's more a question of do you want to be in REITs in the first place? Instead, you probably want to focus on utilities.
Likes it. Attractive today, and will get more attractive as the actual dividend payout ratio approaches 100%. Unique in the oil world because their netbacks are high and cash costs are low. Reserve-life durability is very long. It can drive the ebb and flow of the oil cycle as few others in the industry can.
If you have to own oil or participate in energy, start with this name. Becomes a low-beta proxy for the oil price as a whole.
Great company, especially in the context of Canada. He has a few questions about its capital allocation as it's moving into the US, goals seem a little ambitious. Quality firm, generates a lot of cash. Don't chase; valuation is mean reverting.
Keep it on your watchlist. Pick away as the valuation comes down.
Canadian telcos are an interesting space. He's been cutting his positions in them over several months, mainly because competitive intensity is remaining quite high. Dominant, but is the payout ratio sustainable? Will the price war abate?
He's cautious. Step away for now. A better time to buy would be when you no longer get those text offers of extra data for only $5 more.
The rate cut in Canada has flowed through into a slightly higher equity multiple. But Canadian telcos are indebted, so their leverage levels are not low and they do have to make some non-core assets sales.
But the main point is that the marginal cost to get a new subscriber is nearly zero. This potentially makes for a very competitive environment no matter where you go. So he's more cautious, because every extra subscriber that comes in the door is that much more problematic, if everyone else is fighting for them.
It's been a long time since the Model T. When you think about Ford today, there's more competition coming from the Chinese OEMs, which are dominating the domestic market and giving TSLA a run for its money. Export risk. US auto sales on a more muted path since Covid, residual car prices have been coming down. Competition's really picked up, and that's not going to change.
Yes, investors are definitely in a mood. Earnings season has seen some significant gap downs. When looking at earnings for Ford and all the other automakers, it's kind of deceiving, as the capital intensity of these businesses is high. They're far more expensive on free cashflow than they are on price-to-earnings.
You can break it down into the high-growth, momentum stocks (aka "the Magnificent 7 and then some"). What we've seen there are questions around the profitability of AI. It's also important to say that summer is here and liquidity is lower, so stock moves tend to get more pronounced. As a whole, it's not a great environment to be missing on earnings.
Two main reasons why tech stocks started to see more weakness. First, more export controls to China. Second, GOOG saying they're going to invest but don't see that clear a path to the killer app that will make AI useful for the masses.
Absolutely. And this has been the characteristic and hallmark of every single technology adoption cycle. The dark fibre era of the early 2000s became the lit fibre era, because all that technology in the ground ultimately got used.
But investors are focused on the quarterly sequential beats for NVDA, and how that flows downstream. One stat that many might not know is that GOOG spends more as a percentage of its sales today on hard, capital expenditures than GE did in its heyday of the industrial boom. These companies are way more analog in their investments than most people realize.
Uniquely in between both pipelines and utilities. Likes it. Pre-eminent Canadian entity in the midstream space. Half of it is a high-quality utility. Leverage is a bit high, but you can look past that because the regulated utility assets it has are very high quality in Ontario. What it bought in the US is high quality as well.
It's his top quasi-utility/quasi-midstream. He'd be open to adding today.
Price struggles are due to high leverage, and that execution still has to be proven on the US acquisitions. US rate cuts would also be beneficial.