He's very bullish and staying in the market. not selling. Wage inflation is transitory and he sees normalization coming in the next few months. He's not surprised by bottlenecks, post-Covid. This is a stockpicker's market.
His outlook is long term. There are no great asset classes now, given inflation and interest rate concerns. Nothing looks great. He's been to conservative this year, though he's done okay with oil and other commodities. How will rates behave next year? It's impossible for anyone to know, including the Fed. If the US 10-year stays around 1.6%, stocks will probably go up by 5-10%, and he'll play the game by going in and getting out. But it's stupid to buy bonds at 1.6%. Will people keep buying bonds? And selling stocks means paying a large tax bill. Stay exposed to stocks for the long run. It's likely the Fed will taper next month, but he doesn't know what will happen. Overall, he doesn't like the market now. It's like Vegas now.
Market outlook Stocks are so pegged to interest rates now. If rates go 1.6%-1.7%, money comes out of growth and into value. If we stay around this level, earnings hold and we see clarity in terms of rates in the next couple of quarters, we could see more money going into stocks that have earnings tailwinds like financials, like MS. But volatility spikes and rates pass 2%, money will come out of stocks in general.
Megacap tech stocks He's looking for companies with pricing power and increased demand for their products and services, like the megacap techs (which he heavily owns) reporting next week. He won't time the market, but will stick with stocks long term. If you time the market, you could miss the run.
It's down 11% today. They just reported--they're overspending and killing their margins that'll hurt them into next year. He needs to reconsider Intel. Their earnings and outlook are disappointing.
It's down 5% today, but he has conviction for it. Less than 10x earnings this year and next, and boasts one of the best drug pipelines in the industry.
The headline today is that supply chain disruptions are hurting the advertisers who provide the revenue to Facebook and Google, but the market goes through phases. For example, 2-3 weeks markets were deeply worried about inflation and Evergrande, but if you ask someone today they'll think that Evergrande is a Las Vegas casino. Things are transitory. People come back to these stocks when they feel they're selling at attractive levels, and these tech stocks are still the big growth engines.
The headline today is that supply chain disruptions are hurting the advertisers who provide the revenue to Facebook and Google, but the market goes through phases. For example, 2-3 weeks markets were deeply worried about inflation and Evergrande, but if you ask someone today they'll think that Evergrande is a Las Vegas casino. Things are transitory. Google has had a fantastic year, up 80%, she thinks. People come back to these stocks when they feel they're selling at attractive levels, and these tech stocks are still the big growth engines..
The stock was 80% in 2020. This year, it hasn't done anything because everyone is worried about shipping, fulfillment and other costs. Amazon is investing for the future. It is not worried about temporary costs. The sales will rise so quickly that the operating leverage will kick in. The real money is also made in cloud computing that is still growing. (Analysts’ price target is $4143.57)
Rumours of it looking to acquire Pinterest are making the rounds. It is creating what Facebook is not allowed to. A super app that allows for social media, banking, financing, etc.. Paypal has a long tailwind. (Analysts’ price target is $327.76)
Run by Liberty group that is a buyback machine. Makes profits selling broadband and cable. Wireless is at a loss to beat other telcos. Has pulled back a bit because of an analyst saying that subscriber growth will slow. This is normal since everyone is now signed up for internet. An attractive entry point here. (Analysts’ price target is $817.66)
(A Top Pick Oct 02/20, Up 33%) Last year was a little more quiet in the market. The best business in the world. It is not trading at the highest multiple in the world though. Great quality business should trade at at least 25 - 30x earnings. Apple trades at 25x forward earnings. Continues to innovate.
(A Top Pick Oct 02/20, Up 34%) This was recommend before vaccines. This company benefits from elective surgery. These surgeries were not happening then. Expects them to report record earnings in 2021. Better days lie a head. Benefits from the aging population. Has intimate relationships with doctors. It is also a platform that is good at acquiring businesses.
(A Top Pick Oct 02/20, Up 151%) Best large cap TSX performer this year. Comes down to management that is one of the best in North America. Acquired UPS Freight and turned it around already. It will pay out big dividends. This company is more stable than in the past. Still attractively priced here if it continues to execute.