Today, Don Lato and Bruce Campbell (1) commented about whether NTR-T, ATD.B-T, BNS-T, S-T, IPL-T, BBT-N, DIS-N, TRP-T, THO-T, ARE-T, PRU-N, BAC-N, CP-T, CNR-T, LB-T, AR-T, CJ-T, CHR-T, SU-T, TV-T, ALA-T, FTS-T, V-N, MA-N, ENB-T, TOU-T, AFN-T, WBA-Q, ZZZ-T, CTC.A-T, BWA-N, AAPL-Q, PXT-T, NFLX-Q, BA-N, GILD-Q, PFE-N, AMZN-Q, PXT-T, FRU-T, ACB-T, GOOG-Q, MFC-T are stocks to buy or sell.
A wild day today when the market flirted with a correction. Confusing times. But be positive and constructive. It's painful while it lasts, but he doesn't see signs of an end to the bull market. In 10% corrections since 1928, 60% of them didn't fall further. On average the third year of a US presidential term sees 16% returns, 21% if Republican. A recessionary indicator he saws says there's 0% chance of recession. Since 1978, the average return the year following a correction is 18.5%. That said, we don't know how the trade war (US-China) will resolve. That fear of a trade war triggered today's selling. He thinks the selling is largelty algorithm-driven, perhaps 66% according to one study. Look for sound businesses trading at reasonable valuations as earnings grow year over year. He still
sees earnings growth in 2019. The TSX has a lower/better valuation than America's, but Canadian relies on energy which will remain slumped. He favours the U.S. market.
Canadian retailing has been one of the weakest sectors on the TSX. Rising wages is one factor. CTC pays 12x 2019 earnings, so it's still reasiably valued. He's worried about the major acquisition of the skiwear company, Helly Hansen. This is different from Sportchek or Mark's Work Wearhouse. He wants to see how CTC absorbs the skiwear company first. Skiing is a different business for CTC, so he doesn't see the fit.
(Past Top Pick Nov. 30, 2017, Down 18%) It just hit 52-week lows, but its earnings from fallen from 18x to 13x. ZZZ had a few weak same-store sales in recent quarters, but not disastrous. The retail story isn't sexy compared to, say, cannabis where investors have poured in. They still dominate mattress sales in Canada. Their new ad campaign is pushing accessories which sees revenue growth. There are fears that the mattress-in- a-box companies will compete, but ZZZ also sells a box beds. It's a mystery to him why Sleep has been hammered. A few good quarters will turn it around. You can buy it now.
He's longed owned it and happy with it. They just closed a purchased and have grown a lot by acquisition over the years. Equity deal brought their stock down a bit, but their balance is much better, they have assimilated those purchases, and are in the position to do more. Nice dividend, but haven't raised it in a while, because they're spending their cash on purchases. Steady as she goes here. Growth will pick up in 2019.
Nat gas prices have barely risen in Canada. This is one of his few Canadian energy stocks. They signed long-term contracts priced when natural gas was higher, and sell in various markets so benfit from those currencies. Their cash flow growth has slowed, but it's 3.7x this year and 3.2x in 2019. Well-managed company. Bide your time here. One of the best stocks in this sector.
Where are the FAANGs and S&P going? Two of the FANGs are highly valued while the others are reasonable. The higher ones are falling faster. He invests fundamentally for the long run. A rally could start tomorrow or the day after the Midterms or six weeks from now. He's comfortable with the fundamentals in the economy, pending a black swan event.
He's not quite ready to buy this correction. The volatility still bothers him. We're -9% YTD in the TSX. Remember in June 2008 the TSX was at 15,200. So, we're net flat since then. It has paid off to invest in the U.S. He wants to see three or four days of calm before stepping back in. We will rebound from this correction, which feels terrible when you're in it. Things do look cheap, but wait a little. If you have dollars, maybe buy a third now, then another third closer to Christmas. The fundamentals remain good.
Has come down with all the auto stocks. BWA has outperformed the industry by a lot in the last quarter. Sales growth of 3% vs. -3%. They're making good advances in hybrids and e-cars. Pays 8x 2019 earnings and has a growing market share while the auto market will recover. (1.7% yield, $49.91 price target)