Today, Robert Lauzon and Bruce Campbell (2) commented about whether VGO-CN, CXV-X, GXI-T, MSL-T, BKD-X, DIV-T, GUD-T, POI.H-X, PLI-T, WEF-T, PRW-T, SIO-X, CXR-T, ACQ-T, DHX.B-T, T-T, PHM-X, CRH-T, GXO-T, SCR-T, TOU-T, NVA-T, CVE-T, SU-T, TBE-T, DEE-T, PONY-T, ERF-T, COS-T, ARX-T, LEG-T, KEY-T, PKI-T, CJ-T, SKX-X, TGL-T, ATH-T, PNE-T, KEL-T, CQE-T, GXO-T, BXE-T, RDS.B-N, SPE-T, VSN-T, CKE-T, HSE-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Has added to his portfolio this year at about $13.50. When oil was $80, this was a great company, but he had other companies with more torque to the upside. At $50 oil, this company can still make money because of their lower cost wells. There are very few companies that can make money at this level. A perfect stock to be in over 2015. Pays a dividend, has a clean balance sheet and good management that has access to capital to do deals.
Great assets. Unfortunately a little bit of mismanagement has caused the debt to be too high for investors’ appetites. There has been a lot of shareholder value destroyed by the company. Thinks the company is worth in the $4 range, but to get there it has to do some real strategic reshuffling of the deck. Management has been talking about doing something for 6 months now, but nothing has happened. Prefers others.
At this level of the commodity price, this company does not make a lot of money. Probably break even. Dividend should probably be cut to zero. This owns a piece of Syncrude. The operator of Syncrude is Exxon and there are 7 or 8 shareholders. To him, this company should not exist, but the question is, what is somebody willing to pay for it.
There are lots of stocks in the energy patch that gives you exposure to the same type of business. This one gives you exposure to Bakken oil, some Marcellus gas and some deep basin. A great company. There are other great companies where you can switch around and grab that tax asset of capital loss to lower your capital gains down the road.
This will eventually be taken over when someone actually builds an LNG project, which might be 7 years from now. If you have a five-year horizon, you will probably make money, but in the meantime, you are just going to go sideways until there is a movement in energy. Be prepared to hold it for 6-8 months and you might get a nice rally. Not a bad entry point.
Markets. Markets have been pretty good for the last couple of years, and whenever that happens, he worries about investors getting a little bit complacent. He likes to follow the leading economic indicator out of the US versus its 18 month moving average, and has found that when it is above the 18 month moving average, that is a good sign. When it crosses below, typically that leads to a recession, probably within the 6-18 month timeframe. Right now it is in very good shape. Margin debt is back to a new all-time high. It is not really the level of margin debt that he is concerned about, it is that he doesn’t want to see margin debt all of a sudden be retracted quickly, because that is the liquidity that comes out of the market. He is watching if the Fed increases interest rates. If that happens, and there is some pullback in the margin debt, it could really mean a lot of liquidity coming out of the market. The yield curve is a very good predictor of recession. When you pair it off with the leading economic indicator in the 18 month moving average and it starts to get inverted and short term rates are higher than the longer-term rates, that can often lead to recession and shows difficulty in months to come.