PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick Feb 22/11, Down 74.94%) sticking with it. Likes changes they made. It is a bet on QNX.
COMMENT
Comment Investing. European Central Bank is providing extended long-term financing to a whole host of European private sector banks has taken the Armageddon off the table for a little bit. A whole host of data points, such as data from the US and China, are generally positive. Propensity for headline risks will continue to come out of Europe. Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. have huge bond refinancing that will be occurring on almost a weekly or biweekly basis. Investors can take advantage of this if they have a very good sense of what they deem to be quality in the market and work hard to put a price tag on it.
BUY
Steel stocks were amongst the very worst performing last year. Probably a good opportunity here where good quality steel companies are trading as low as 4X cash flow. Because of high fixed costs, they will never command huge multiples. If you own, there will probably be a holding period of about 2 years with a fair amount of volatility.
DON'T BUY
Very large tobacco company. Very popular because it has a growing business in emerging markets. He has never been comfortable with litigation risks that tobacco companies face. Also many governments will be putting through austerity programs and excise taxes on this industry will be going up. Starting to see price competition. 3.84% dividend.
BUY
Super high quality company. Prefers Schneider of France because they have a slightly better presence in emerging markets but nothing wrong with this company.
COMMENT
(Doesn't own equity but owns a number of their fixed instruments.) With its geographic exposure, it doesn't have a huge opportunity to organically grow its deposit base. Prefers Standard Chartered Bank (STAN-LSE). You might use this as a trade, but not a long-term hold.
COMMENT
Shifting to a US bank? This bank is a huge favourite of deep value investors because the balance sheet is not that bad a shape. Opportunity for volume growth is very poor. With US banks, there will be a fair number of headlines where stress tests are going to come due in March. You might consider US Bancorp (USB-N).
DON'T BUY
Really suffers by virtue of being a European large-cap. Because of the debt level and high dividend payout ratio, there is some concern as to whether or not the dividend is sustainable. Too early to get into this name.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 23/11. Down 10.95%.) Medical devices. Just reported strong numbers. Volumes in replacement knees has suffered because of the economy but still likes this long-term because of demographic tailwinds. Strong possibility it will get taken out in 3-4 years by one of its competitors.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 23/11. Down 26.5%.) Huge management changes in this company in the last year. Dividend is secure and he would like to give management 2-3 quarters for some kind of evidence of a turnaround.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 23/11. Down 1.23%.) Still one of the preeminent American industrial companies. Still likes.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't own any uranium stocks. Doesn't see huge capacity for nuclear energy coming on anytime soon. Commodities are the most cyclical and volatile of stocks.
BUY
They are a foundry so do very little design of integrated semiconductors but do a lot of manufacturing. A big client of theirs is Qualcom (QCOM-Q). They are a direct beneficiary of the rise of mobile computer devices, smart phones and tablets. Very well-positioned. Huge technological leader.
HOLD
One of the great things about them is the way they expand internationally. In non-American markets, they get the franchisees to do the slog of building the company out but retain the right to buy them out at 5-6 times cash flow, which is a very low price. Doesn't own because the barriers to entry in his industry are almost nonexistent.
DON'T BUY
Gets about half its revenue from commercial and about half from defence. Thinks outlook for defence spending is potentially at risk as governments try to get some of their spending under control.