COMMENT
Two-year outlook is probably good for any of the Canadian banks. The challenge and risk with this bank is their Latin American exposure. (See Top Picks.)
COMMENT
Bank Preferreds: Rank higher than common shares in the hierarchy of paying out in case of an issue. New ones being issued now are called perpetual and the price does not change because of the high interest rates. Over the longer term, he would prefer common shares, which gives you potential for a rising dividend.
HOLD
Really likes this one. Has surprised over the years. Very shareholder friendly. Very disciplined management. Trading in line with the industry average at about 13X PE.
DON'T BUY
2 businesses. Harlequin romances have had challenges over the last few years but seems to be turning around. Toronto Star has the largest newspaper circulation. This is a far more challenging business. Balance sheet is somewhat stretched.
BUY
Produce culvert pipes and things for bridges and roads. Very good way to play the infrastructure story. 12.25% yield should be safe. Good management.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Expecting a recovery in the US economy in the second half of the year.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) Difficult one. Earnings are just coming out which may change the story. Longer-term it is a Buy but in the short term it is a Hold.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Would prefer the bigger cap Canadian banks given their better diversification. They have done a very good job in improving their results.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Short term probably a Buy but as they move into consumer businesses, the nature of the business is changing.
TOP PICK
This is the infrastructure toll road of commerce. One of the most widely accepted cards in the world. First-quarter profit was 35%.
DON'T BUY
Yield of about 5%. Return On Equity is falling rapidly. Also wants a reasonable debt to cash flow of below 3X or 2.5X. Theirs is 3.6X.
COMMENT
Likes the company and even liked the stock when it was around $7. There is a lot of market apprehension about infrastructure, business jets in particular. Very high level of ROE and very strong profit growth. Valuation looks good. It won't go anywhere until corporate spreads narrow in and some of the risk aversion goes away.
DON'T BUY
Almost across the board, there is a collapsing profitability in Canadian banks. He has been nervous about this area for quite some time. Except for CIBC (CM-T) ROE seems to be falling quite rapidly.
BUY
Excellent valuation. Looks very appealing. Likes their far Eastern plan as he believes in the emerging economy story. Payout ratio one year forward is a little high which makes him nervous.
COMMENT
Gold: Thinks gold will be $1000, $1100 or even $1200 within the next few years.