Kim Bolton Nebius Group NBIS-Q BUY Aug 13, 2025

Up 108% since Oct. 21. A cloud server. Up 7.9% today. It used to be Yandex, the Google of Russia, which no one paid attention to. They plan to acquire as many GPUs as they can and build-new data centres. Their core is the AI infrastructure business. There's limited financial info, but adjusted EBITDA is -$7 million billion last December. When shares jumped last December, Citron Research recommended it twice, but Citron has been charged with fraud twice in an alleged pump and dump operation. NBIS claims to be close to NVDA, but that is in doubt. It trades at 20x its full-year revenue forecast--very expensive.

Out of Europe, but previously out of Russia. Pretty fully priced. Full-stack infrastructure for AI-centric cloud platforms. Management knows their stuff.

A lot of the market cap is in cash but the company is also going to be deploying that cash into data centers to facilitate their growth in the near future. The operational risk is more from an execution point of view and that the revenues aren't 'there yet'. So, while they have guided to a large ramp in revenues, they still need to show that they can actually deliver this revenue growth and as always, nothing is guaranteed on this front. On top of the operational risk it is also just a volatile stock which adds 'risks' and markets remain fairly skittish on the space since the Deepseek drama a few months back. We think it is interesting under $30. Valuation is a bit of a moving target from data providers, but if the company hits their recurring revenue guidance at year end of $750 million to $1 billion, it would be trading at something around EV/'Sales' of 3.5X to 4.5X. 
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The giant recent contract won by the company does require capital, and this is the main reason NBIS has raised close to $4 billion (including the stock issuance and convertible debentures). Considering the stock was only in the $90 range for 24 hours, we think the price is a good deal for the company. Seeing strong institutional investor support after a 50% gain in the stock is a very strong sign. It does not necessarily cap the stock. There are a lot of new shareholders, and if the company continues to execute well they will continue to support it and buy. If there is a second large contract then shares could still do very well. We would be very comfortable holding it after recent events. 
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AI data centre market, along with 4-5 other divisions. Stock's moving now because of AI. Lots of experience in data centres. Last week, won $19.5B contract from MSFT. They also raised $4.5B in capital. So market cap's gone from $2-3B to $20B. Not a slam dunk, but the MSFT deal gives them business for a year and they build out from there.

Research from GS suggests revenue base will go up 26x by end of 2026. Trading at 5x revenue, compared to many peers at 15-20x. No dividend.

Data-centre-type company originally from Russia, now residing in the Netherlands. Currently trades at $120. Not much runway to the average price target of $134. Perhaps write some calls, or sell some puts if you want to pick up more a bit lower.