Opinions by Daniel Lloyd | StockChase
181
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2016

Sui Generis Investment Partners


Opinions by Daniel Lloyd



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2017-07-05

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. We are a week away from the Bank of Canada’s decision. They will probably hike interest rates, but he is not sure there is a particularly good reason for this. To slow down housing markets, it would seem that the housing specific rules are accomplishing that anyway. He would worry about the strengthening of the Cdn$ and the impact of that on exports. He is in a strange spot at the moment in that he is bullish on energy, but bearish on almost everything else. It’ll be interesting to see, if he is right on energy, what happens to the rest of the market. The issue on energy is that a lot of money was raised, a lot of money has been spent and no money has actually been made. You can grow production all you want, but at some point economics has to kick in, which he believes is happening now.

Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM-T)

A Canadian focused gold miner. He is bullish on gold in general, and this has always been a very well liked name. Canadian gold miners are getting hit as a result of the strong Cdn$. If you want to own a Canadian focused miner, this is as good as any.

precious metals
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $57.330
Owned: Unknown

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Badger Daylighting (BAD-T)

He is short this. They are in a particularly tough spot at the moment in that they operate in what he believes is a commoditized business, mobile hydro-vac vehicles. With almost 70% of the business being in the US, this is one of the companies that would be harmed by a stronger Cdn$. However, it really comes down to an overcapacity issue. There are more trucks than are required. Two of their competition are in the process of merging.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $26.030
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Baytex Energy Corp (BTE-T)

Sold his position about a month ago. He likes what they are doing. Very good operators. If you are very bullish on crude, this is a really, really torquey name. They have both financial and operating leverage. Very good assets in Canada and Texas. The issue is the debt. It is too levered, and they have to fix it. This needs crude to be $10 higher for them to be positive cash flow.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $2.900
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

DON'T BUY
Canaccord Financial Inc (CF-T)

Not quite sure that being Long a Canadian brokerage would be the best place to be over the near term, particularly given that he is not that rosy about the Canadian economy in general. It is a very, very hyper competitive industry they are operating in, with margins being compressed from every direction. However, it is diversifying into other countries, the UK, which is an interesting contrarian play because of the BREXIT overhang. Trading below BV and also have considerable retail assets that would be worth something to a potential acquirer.

investment companies/funds
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $5.420
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Calfrac Well Services Ltd (CFW-T)

He is interested in pressure pumpers at the moment, and is trying to position himself along the fracing value chain. He owns Trican (TCW-T) instead. This has much more US exposure, a much more competitive market.

oil/gas field services
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $2.380
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

PAST TOP PICK
CI Financial Corp (CIX-T)

(A Top Pick July 5/16. Down 9.98%.) *Short* He’s been Short this for a couple of years and it has been good to him. The stock has rallied recently. A very expensive stock and margins are shrinking because of the management fees they are able to charge. Feels this is a long-term structural Short.

investment companies/funds
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $27.950
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-05

TOP PICK
CI Financial Corp (CIX-T)

*Short* The competitive pressure has gotten worse. The stock price has risen, but that has been with the broader market in general, not because the business has improved. They still have very weak underlying net sales. Dividend yield of 5.1%. (Analysts’ price target is $29.50.)

investment companies/funds
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $27.950
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-05

DON'T BUY
Cardinal Energy Ltd (CJ-T)

After they made their large acquisition of assets in Western Canada, they did a reasonably large financing that didn’t go particularly well. The financing was only half sold. Financing was at $5.50, and the stock is at $4.71, so that block of stocks still needs to come out. Until you see that happen, there is not much point in buying this.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $4.710
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

BUY
Corus Entertainment (B) (CJR.B-T)

He is Short another company in the industry, and is looking at this as an offset. It’s a pretty decent free cash flow generator. Their legacy business in radio is a cash flow machine. The content business is not particularly good in that margins are being ground down by things like Netflix. This has enough interesting media properties outside of just the content, that it is an interesting cash flow vehicle, and is probably worth owning.

entertainment services
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $13.630
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)

He is Short this, but it is more of a generic Short in that he needed a hedge being Long on energy. If he is wrong on energy, this company will be harmed quite a bit by a very enormous debt load.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $36.830
Owned: Yes

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Canadian National R.R. (CNR-T)

Rails in general are interesting businesses in that they are very unique assets. They are very economically sensitive. If you believe that an eventual fiscal stimulus will come to the US, names like this will do very well. He is a little more skeptical on that. In general, this is fully valued.

Transportation
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $106.150
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG-T)

He would not be Short this. If you are Bullish on crude, this would be a pretty interesting name to own. Their assets in the Saskatchewan Bakken is very good and they have a dominant position there. The company is out of favour with institutional investors after constantly raising equity. It screens quite cheaply now.

oil/gas
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $9.380
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
Detour Gold (DGC-T)

This consists of one large mine at Detour Lake in Northern Ontario. Very, very large and very low grade. If you were incredibly bullish on gold, it would be an interesting name to own as you would get a lot of torque, and the high cost producers’ margin expansion is a lot greater as gold prices move higher. There are probably better names to own. Not only do you have the high cost issue, but you also have the single mine risk.

precious metals
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $14.530
Owned: No

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2017-07-05

COMMENT
First Quantum Minerals (FM-T)

A good Short? The short answer is yes, and the long answer is yes, but he would advise against doing it. To do it, he would put a Long against it such as Lundin Mining (LUN-T) or Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T). They have an awful lot of debt and are very concentrated in Zambia. There are execution risks on a very large mine they are building in Panama. With a lot of debt attached, this is a very tough place to be.

integrated mines
Daniel Lloyd

Founder & Portfolio Manager, Sui Generis Investment Partners

Price: $11.460
Owned: No

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