Opinions by Jon Vialoux | StockChase
521
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jan 2013

Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com


Opinions by Jon Vialoux


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2017-09-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.This is supposed to be the season of volatility, but where is the volatility? It hasn’t spiked in September, which is supposed to be the weakest month of the year. It looks like the S&P 500 is going to go with a 2% gain, and the TSX is even better at 3%. This just speaks to the fundamental backdrop in the economy right now. We are seeing phenomenal manufacturing numbers, and are reaching a point of full employment.

Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-09-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Energy. We are beyond the period of seasonal strength, which just ended recently. Between the middle of August to mid September is the period of seasonal strength. We are getting into the maintenance season. Hurricanes have always played a role at this time causing supply disruptions, which tends to drive the price of oil higher. We might not see this come back until November, which is the end of their historical maintenance period. There could be some volatility. He would be cautious.

Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-09-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Consumer Spending. This is showing the weakest year-to-date performance in decades, and we are also seeing that in terms of vehicle sales. Vehicle sales and restaurant sales are the most discretionary items of consumers’ budgets. Has also started seeing weak housing numbers as well, and that predates the hurricanes. We are coming into the 4th quarter, which is heavily driven by consumers spending. If we are not seeing it coming into this period, is it really going to materialize? He would avoid the sector or at least market weight it. Certainly wouldn’t overweight it. Look towards industrials and materials, the things that will really benefit from that manufacturing push.

Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-09-29

TOP PICK
Agrium (AGU-T)

These agricultural plays do well to the end of the year. Remember all the farmers are placing orders for the new year. Shipments into the 1st quarter between Oct 3 and Jan16 shares of Agrium have gained 13.29% and been positive in 17 of the past 20 periods. This year, shipments of fertilizers have been dismal. You could argue that weather is to blame. If commodity prices are going to pick up this year, we could see a very good period of seasonal strength. The chart is showing it starting to break out. (Analysts’ price target is $106.10.)

chemicals
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $133.720
Owned: No

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2017-09-29

DON'T BUY
Bombardier Inc (B) (BBD.B-T)

Seasonally, this is beyond the period of seasonal strength. The peak period you want to be in for industrial stocks is between March 6 and June 11, which produces an average return above the S&P 500 of about 9.05%, and has been positive in about 15 of the past 19 periods. Currently, it is starting to break down. The headlines do not help the stock. Technically, it seems to be developing a Head and Shoulders pattern, which implies lower Highs ahead. There is really no reason to hold this.

transportation equip & components
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $2.260
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP.UN-T)

Hold?This is more of a yield play, so it doesn’t have the gyrations such as energy. It is more of a utility play. Yield of 4.42%. When you look at the seasonal chart for yield play such as this, it is really just a 45° line higher. It doesn’t show the seasonal fluctuations that was in some of the other sectors. His database shows that the optimal time to hold this is from Dec 7 to March 7 giving it 6.13% above the bench mark. Has been positive in 14 of the past 17 years. Technically, it is coming down to test the 200-day moving average and bouncing off of that level, which implies the long-term momentum is intact, and that it will continue to chart higher highs and higher lows. Pick this up more towards the December timeframe.

Utilities
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $41.810
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

PAST TOP PICK
FedEx (FDX-N)

(A Top Pick Aug 18/17. Up 10%.) This tends to have a seasonal run between Aug 27 to Nov 29, which is pretty much your US Thanksgiving. This is really a movement on the play of people and things ahead of the holiday season. Shipping activity has been very strong this year. Online retailers are doing great, and this is a beneficiary of that. This broke out of a level of resistance, came back and tested it as a level of support.

Transportation
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $225.580
Owned: No

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2017-09-29

PAST TOP PICK
Goldex Resources Corp. (GDX-X)

(A Top Pick Aug 18/17. 0%.) Basically, insurance on your portfolio during the summer months. The period of volatility is from the end of July through to the beginning of October, but volatility has failed to play out.

Golds
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $0.610
Owned: No

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+ (HNU-T)

The problem with playing these leveraged products is that it is basically a gamble. You are anticipating a short-term move, and in terms of the double leveraged Bull, you are hoping that is going to be positive. This is really a gambling tool, and not something he would like to play. Natural gas has been struggling at its 200-day moving average and is starting to curl lower. The builds in inventory levels over recent weeks have been higher than average. Going forward, we are looking at moderate temperatures in the US, so it doesn’t present that bullish backdrop for a near term rise.

E.T.F.'s
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $5.790
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
HSBC Holdings P L C (HSBC-N)

Between March 30 and August 10 is the optimal time to be buying and holding this. It has had an average return of about 7.7% over the benchmark, and has been positive in 14 of the past 17 years. This year it had a low of about $39 in April all the way to a high of about $50 just before August, a phenomenal run. We are beyond its period of seasonal strength, but there are still higher highs and higher lows technically. This is not something he would venture into, but would go into other financial companies instead.

banks
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $49.410
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Kinross Gold (K-T)

We are beyond the period of seasonal strength for gold stocks. From June 16 to October 9, this has generated a return of 1.71%. That is the period of seasonal strength for gold commodity and producers. Technically, the chart shows a bit of a head and shoulders pattern. If we get a break below the 200-day moving average of about $5, you could see significant lows ahead. Thinks gold miners are a great buy here even though we don’t have positive seasonal tendencies over the next few months.

precious metals
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $5.290
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Manulife Financial (MFC-T)

Seasonally, between Dec 10 and April 3 is the optimal time to buy this. During that time, you have accumulated an average return of about 3% above the benchmark rate. It has been positive in 13 of the past 17 periods. Technically, it is holding support at the longer-term moving average. In the last couple of days, financials have broken out. (See Top Picks.)

insurance
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $25.310
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
3M Co. (MMM-N)

He is very much in favour of industrial stocks. Higher highs and higher lows. It has support at its 50-day moving average. Feb 11 to July 5 is the optimal time to be buying this. We are outside of that time frame, but between the end of August through to the end of the year, this tends to move higher. Technically, it broke out above short-term resistance at about $210, and he has seen retracement. If it can hold that as a level of support, it is expected to go higher.

mngmnt/diversified
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $209.900
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

PAST TOP PICK
Purpose High Interest Savings (PSA-T (Not List)

(A Top Pick Aug 18/17. 0%.) You are basically collecting a 1% return over the course of the year. It is basically a place to park cash.

E.T.F.'s
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $0.000
Owned: No

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2017-09-29

TOP PICK
Rio Tinto (RIO-N)

What better way to play the manufacturing uptick or the strength of the manufacturing economy than to play one of the world’s largest metal and mining companies. Between Oct 4 and Jan 6, the average gain is 10.76%, and has been positive in 15 of the past 20 periods. There is a trend of higher highs and higher lows. It’s bumping up against long-term resistance at about $50. Has really gone sideways at that level since the recession. If we do see a break out, we should see tremendous highs ahead. He wants to be seeing the play in copper even if there is an uptick in gold. (Analysts’ price target is $55.)

other mines
Jon Vialoux

Research Analyst, Timingthemarket.ca & Equityclock.com

Price: $47.190
Owned: No

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