Eric Nuttall

The market's trying to get its head around 2 massive uncertainties. One is tariffs, and the impact they may or may not have on global GDP and, therefore, on global oil demand. A few analysts have cut global oil demand for this year. Some parallels are being drawn between March 2020 and today. Back then we had a demand shock, and now we have a potential demand shock. In March 2020, Saudi Arabia surged production capacity to the maximum.

Today we have the voluntary members of an OPEC deal that has curtailed volumes; they've now announced that they're adding barrels and at an accelerated pace. He thinks this is intended to force greater compliance from OPEC "cheaters" of the agreed-upon lower volumes.

In April, seeing production down by a little, but not yet seeing full compliance. Raises concerns as to what OPEC leadership will do in the next several months, which is the second uncertainty. 

Right now, the market's very underexposed to oil. Nobody's bullish, everybody's throwing in the towel. It feels as though we've reached the bottom from a sentiment perspective. He struggles with what's it going to take to see $75-80 oil over the next year. Massive demand uncertainties could change with a single tweet. Overall, feels as though the market could be sloppy for the next year.

High exposure to price of oil and to the differential of Canadian heavy oil (back to almost-new lows). Upstream is going exceedingly well. But downstream has poor utilization rates, mishaps, negative EBITDA; those are all the reasons it's massively lagged peers. Fix that, and good rerate potential; won't play out until latter half of 2025 or early 2026.

If you own, he'd hesitate to sell. He's watching, near the top of his list to deploy capital. You could wake up one morning to a big pop in the stock price.

Sold off on concerns about Canada, what if another Liberal gets in, tariffs on energy, and exposure to the WCS differential. His fund has to be more sensitive to short-term moves, so he sold and harvested a decent tax loss. So you could sell and buy, say, CVE.

For most retail investors, it's a name you can just sit on. One of the deepest resource bases, rock-solid management team, yield is 6.1% (extremely sustainable). Usually it's defensive.

Profitable around $51, so you have about $6 of margin right now. Growing 3-5% per year. Paying down debt, balance sheet extremely strong. Dividends are sustainable down to $52. Wouldn't be surprised if they dialed down capex, which makes the dividend even more secure. Montney assets are significantly better than the market appreciates. Good natural gas weight. Yield is 9.3%.

Very defendable business in current oil price environment. Massive resource depth. US shale is in its twilight, which means they'll eventually have to come to Canada. Very healthy FCF yield. Buying back lots of stock. 

At least 35 years of stay-flat inventory. Superbly high-quality asset. Good balance sheet. Sold off on tariff concerns. He has lots of confidence in medium- and long-term outlook. Full position in his fund.

Performed very well. Aggressively buying back stock. Trades at a deserved premium. But today he'd prefer CNQ. Good tax-loss candidate. Very strong balance sheet. FCF today is not what it was.

Unfortunately, fatality overnight; will have only a short-term impact, weak today. Despite the name, a natural gas company. Trades at highest premium relative to peers. Management and resource depth are solid. Backdrop is bullish for Canadian natural gas producers, but he'd prefer other names. 

Yield is 13%. Dividend not sustainable. Great candidate for tax-loss selling, and buy another high yielder (such as WCP) with the proceeds. WCP has meaningfully better assets, reliable management, with no Colombian geopolitical risk. 

Fell on disappointing data from fracking, which made market skeptical about quality of assets in the Montney. A return to old way of fracking would restore market's faith. Taken out by WCP, and he likes that deal. Over time, thinks the new entity will be meaningfully rerated when market's risk-on again.

Drawdown 100% connected to price of oil. More debt than average. Risk-off market. Totally fine on liquidity. Deep value, but needs oil at $65-70 to really start humming.

He sold. Service sector has been completely eviscerated. Capex is being cut everywhere, as low oil price isn't motivating for drilling. Won't do well if market continues to be risk-off.

Boring name that pays you a 9.5% dividend yield, sustainable down to about $46 WTI. Not on anyone's radar screen. Asset quality not outstanding, but trades at half the multiple of other names. No exploration risk.

He's tempted, but difficult to see a near-term catalyst. Extremely strong balance sheet, very competent management. Gaining market share. Niche player. Closest competitor is not as good. Spending environment not good for service companies. Stock will struggle. He'd prefer pure-play oil yielding 9-10% or natural gas.

Nothing wrong with the assets or management. It's just the market cap. Current environment is not conducive to meaningful outperformance by small caps. Small-cap model in Canada is essentially obsolete, they just can't afford to drill. Consider taking the tax loss. See his Top Picks.

Small-cap yielding 8%, sustainable in low $50s. Wouldn't be surprised if it dialed back capex, which makes the dividend even more sustainable. Almost a pure play to Clearwater, an exceptional resource. Owns in his income fund, on his list to add to the main fund. Inexpensive. Respected management.