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Stock Opinions by Barry Schwartz

COMMENT
Markets supported by fundamentals.

He believes so. We're now into the second year of a bull market, from when the market bottomed in October 2022. Looking back even further to 2019, we've have a global pandemic that shut down the world, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflict, highest inflation since 1980, and the highest interest rates in many years. If he told you that the S&P 500 would double over those 5 years, you'd have thought him crazy. But that's exactly what happened.

What does that tell you? Focus on fundamentals, try to ignore the noise. And the fundamentals are pretty good. We're at record highs because the earnings of the S&P 500 companies have been tremendous, primarily from some of those big techs. Now we're in the part of the cycle where interest rates are coming down, with more to come from both Canada and the US. Inflation has come to a normalized level.

What will get us over the hump for more record-level performance is earnings, earnings, earnings.

Unknown
COMMENT
Earnings season has the bar set for modest expectations.

Yes. Look at the gigantic move today by TSLA, which had a very low bar going in. A lot of big numbers will start coming out next week when we get some of the big techs. So far, so good.

He sees it as a continuation of more of the same from the beginning of the year. Companies tied to housing, the low-income consumer, or transportation are not doing as great, but most expect things to pick up. It's not that things are so bad, it's just that things were so good for a lot of those companies in 2020-2021, it's hard to find what the normalized level is. Companies like TFII, CP and CNR had good results, but not good enough given how strong the economies are.

Unknown
HOLD

In his balanced portfolio to provide income rather than growth. Not the greatest ride for REITs the last few years. Not seeing the pickup in turnover needed in multi-family residential, people need to leave so you can get higher rents. Lots of buildings are under rent control. Yet maintenance costs keep going up.

Cleaned up balance sheet, sold some assets. Future depends on more turnover, which won't happen until interest rates are at a more attractive level (which encourages more people to start buying houses).

investment companies / funds
WATCH
CGI Group (A)

It's hoping to win more contracts as well as benefit from AI. Every single company is trying to implement AI into their products. Slow-growing business, more acquisition-based. Hasn't knocked it out of the park. A quite reasonable valuation. Actively looking at, would love to buy on a material pullback.

consulting
BUY
CoStar Group

One of the world's best businesses. Provides data to financial and real estate companies, and that part's doing phenomenally. Also owns online real estate platforms, very competitive space, impacting its balance sheet. Spending lots of $$ to try to disrupt competitors, tough slog, depressing free cashflow and margins. CEO says not to worry, and there's no reason not to believe him, as they've pursued this strategy before.

Likes it very much for the long term.

0
BUY
KKR & Co. LP
A rocket ship. Add more, or just hold on?

Alternative asset management is a hot industry. This type of company provide the financing and has the products to sell to institutional investors and retail investors. Likes the industry as a whole. You can't make a living wage with bonds, and equity valuations are high. We're in a multi-year trend of assets flowing into private equity, especially as interest rates come down. 

His favourite in the space is BN.

0
BUY
Brookfield Corp

Alternative asset management is a hot industry. This type of company provide the financing and has the products to sell to institutional investors and retail investors. Likes the industry as a whole. You can't make a living wage with bonds, and equity valuations are high. We're in a multi-year trend of assets flowing into private equity, especially as interest rates come down. 

His favourite in the space. Also the best way to play long-term green trends through its ownership of BEP.UN.

investment companies / funds
STRONG BUY

Happy that stock price has picked up. An investor needs to ask about the valuation and fundamentals. Order book is back to normal levels. Buying back stock. Anticipates $4.50-4.60 EPS this year, which will continue to grow.

Waiting for it rev up its M&A. Serial acquirer, great integrator. Perfect balance sheet, terrific management. One of the highest quality companies in Canada, should trade ~$100 and 20x earnings. He owns a big stake, loves it long term.

packaging / containers
BUY
Ferrari N.V.

The amazing thing is that people who buy one don't stop at just one. Resale values can be much higher than what they paid. Demand is insane, slower in China. Growth phase going forward is full-electric, planning to launch in Q4 2025.

One of the world's best companies with a huge backlog, lots of predictability, and slowly adding more cars over the long term. Deserves its premium valuation.

Automotive
STRONG BUY

Just became a dividend aristocrat, with 25 consecutive years of dividend increases. Benefiting from Trans Mountain. Price has come back because oil prices have fallen. To get stock back to all-time high of $55-56, need oil to return to $80-85. Doesn't really matter, as it will continue to raise the dividend and buy back stock. Athabasca acquisition was brilliant.

Own for the dividend and dividend growth, anything on top is icing on the cake. Loves it.

oil / gas
WEAK BUY
Toronto Dominion

Lots of worries from money-laundering fine to cap on US growth. Dividend's not in trouble. Beautiful balance sheet. No concerns about the business, but the growth won't be there.

Are you a bargain-bin investor with the patience to wait for it to recover? If yes, could be good value down here for long-term investors. He's not, and sold. Loves the Canadian banks long term. His favourites are NA and RY right now.

banks
BUY
Royal Bank

Loves the Canadian banks long term. His favourites are NA and RY right now.

banks
BUY

Loves the Canadian banks long term. His favourites are NA and RY right now.

banks
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 21/23, Up 63%)

Last year was phenomenal. This year a little slower, but that doesn't change the thesis for him. Still believes it has ability to grow topline and bottom line close to 20% a year. If true, in 3-4 years you'll get another double. No end to the acquisitions it can make, as well as spinoffs to encourage faster growth. Don't get too miffed about the quarter-to-quarter acquisition growth.

computer software / processing
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 21/23, Up 30%)

Has done quite well compared to S&P 500. Thinks Buffett is being cautious this year, selling down material positions in AAPL and BAC, buying more OXY. Should see improved operations at Geico and Burlington Northern. CEO-to-be Greg Abel taking control of underperforming operations, and Barry is excited about that.

insurance
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