ASML Holding (ASML-Q)

It reports Wednesday. Is afraid it will miss like last time. Not exactly opaque--a complicated company.

The do a lot of business with China, and Trump refuses to help any Dutch company do business in China, a business ASML needs. (Biden felt the same.) ASML controls a crucial part in the entire semiconductor chain.

Last year was rough, but is holding up better this year. Long term for her, though it may doing nothing in the near future as the Nasdaq stays under pressure.

Last October, warning shock for chip investors. Cut 2025 guidance. He got out of the way. Lithography is a cyclical business. If you're still holding, sell.

Fell below 200-day MA in summer, he got stopped out. Would revisit the name once the dust settles. 30x forward PE for 20% earnings growth. Trying to base. Long-term AI sector thesis very much intact. The leader in its niche.

It makes equipment that is used by semi-conductor manufacturers. It is more cyclical than the semi-conductor sector, which outside of AI shifts is already facing a flat to downward cycle.

Surprised when it lowered guidance, order book was way down, and the stock rolled over by 15% just like that. He didn't sell, as it's still a leader in lithography. The memory side of the business is very cyclical, though the AI side was very robust. What he did, though, was get rid of some of his memory chip stocks.

The company also talked about how China has built out facilities for memory chips. So, another supply of memory chips that will influence the cyclicality.

He just re-bought it. Shares are rallying today because analysts raised earnings expectations. He continues to expect at the end of this year and into next increasing orders for their EUV, a large $250 device that can cram as many advanced features on a chip as possible. Also, the valuation of ASML has fallen to an attractive though not cheap level at 25x PE, no longer 40x.

Loves it. 12-month price target of $1160. Pulled back, but that's similar to the SOXX ETF. Very skewed to China with about 1/3 of its business there. He took some profits and put them into CAJPY.

He sold it in July, but likes it alot for its AI business. They make a machine that allows end-users to put more on a chip, but the machine costs $350 million.  The stock is now cheap (it's fallen a lot and today suffered a downgrade), but consider its end markets--can customers like Intel afford their machine? There's room for the semi stocks to fall further.

Neutral on this name. Business has a monopoly, but problems with major customer (Intel). Regulations also might affect company in a negative manner. Concerns on demand for products, and how the company will continue to grow. 

It reported over a week ago and was hit hard. A quality company that enjoys demand for its chips. There will be more correction in semis. Careful to enter this.

Great opportunity to pick up 4 pillars. MU on the manufacturing, TSM for the foundry, LRCX or KLAC or ASML as the equipment suppliers, NVDA is a gift down here as a designer. And (he can't believe he's going to say this) even INTC; come 2025, it will be competitive with NVDA.

They report next week. They've sold out their EUV product. Their last quarter surprised him. It's a pretty good set up for them now, but it's not cheap. He's holding.