GlaxoSmithKline PLC

GSK-N

He likes the volume recently, but expects resistance at $42. He was disappointed that the recent rally didn’t go higher. It has a good yield and looks like a Canadian bank where volatility is not too high. He would use $38.50 as a stop and would like to see it test $42 as an upper breakout target to buy more. Yield 5.2%.

Don't add to your holdings, just hold. Wait till June when the second generic test of a new drug gets passed by the FDA. They have a great HIV franchise. Their capital plans are really interesting, because they may buy Pfizer's consumer division, while Novartis has a sell option to sell back to GSK an earlier swap deal. They are focusing on consumer products. Dividend yield over 6%.

The pharma industry in the late-90s came out with social drugs like viagra, so the market awarded pharma big growth multiples. But then, these stocks came off. Problem is they were never really growth stocks and now the drug industry isn't coming out with new blockbuster drugs. GSK is developing vaccines, which is fine, but overall, he can't see the previous massive expansion in this space. Currently, the multiples are fair for pharma companies. There's also pricing pressure on drugs in the U.S. as we saw during the 2016 election.

Sales of $7.8 billion was up 2%, which doesn't do a lot for his interest. EPS was 49%. You are getting no top line growth or bottom line growth. A lot of their products have been on the market for a long time. They are trying to switch into a new HIV product, but has competition that has been doing it for a long time.

Healthcare was the worst performing sector in the S&P 500 in 2016, but has been a strong performer this year, and this company has not followed suit. He likes that they have 3 very distinct businesses. One in HIV, one in vaccine, plus a consumer products business. The market is undervaluing all 3 businesses. If you were to break the company up into 3 separate distinct businesses, that would unlock significant shareholder value. Dividend yield of 5%. (Analysts’ price target is $45.)

He has this in his high yield portfolio. GSK-N has their well established pharma and then their Nicolette and other consumer lines. They are getting rid of non-core assets. There is not a lot of growth, but a modest dividend.

This has had some serious misfortunes. The balance sheet is very stretched. It may be forced in making an acquisition of a Novartis (NVS-N) business which it is contractually required to do. The pipeline is fairly weak. Thinks it will eventually survive, but there is a possibility of a dividend cut. There are better places to be. It might be better to look at this a year from now.

A great company. Most of these pharmas are pretty safe. He thinks it is a pretty good buy right here.

(A Top Pick March 21/17. Up 4%.) He has been beating the drums for international investments because dividends were greater and valuations were better. Also, US healthcare has been so under pressure with prices skyrocketing, and this gave you an opportunity to invest in the European drug company.

Healthcare is being overshadowed by a whole bunch of things, demographics, government policies, etc. He is fairly constructive on healthcare. One of the few spaces that is not trading at an overvalued market multiple. One of the overhangs is the political cloud, but if you can get past that, it is a positive space to be in, and not expensive.

He is waiting for some data from the FDA on their inhaler, and perhaps it will come out overnight tonight. This is a diversified pharmaceutical. He likes their long-life assets. Only a couple of their drugs are less than 3% in revenues. This has a decent yield with the new CEO in March committed to that yield.