Stockchase Opinions

Paul Harris, CFA GlaxoSmithKline PLC GSK-N DON'T BUY Nov 17, 2022

Not expensive, 10x earnings. Be careful with pharma, look at the pipeline. Focusing on one area, and that's the risk. Volatility as drugs come off patent. Lots of restructuring. He owns JNJ instead with its 3 businesses. Yield over 5%.
$32.560

Stock price when the opinion was issued

biotechnology pharmaceutical
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DON'T BUY

It's been successfully recently, but they have to pay for their drug pipeline which looks reasonable. Not cheap, but no drug is coming to market that will do very well. So-so overall. There are better peers.

RISKY

Great dividend yield of 6.3%, trades at only 10x earnings. Cheap, you can own it here. Grew vaccine business. New CEO shed some divisions, so now more of a pure pharma company, which has risks. Have to worry about pipeline constantly. JNJ, for example, is more diversified, and that's what he prefers.

COMMENT

They sold their personal care business to generate a lot of capital. They're strong in vaccines, but don't have a strong pipeline of drugs. So, they need to buy other companies to make up for that. Not a high PE and pays a good dividend. The key is what they will do with their capital.

DON'T BUY

Good business, but better opportunities out there.
Attractive dividend yield.
Not investing in business at this time.
Hard to evaluate R&D pipeline.
Would look elsewhere. 

SELL

Big pharmas are all under pressure, growth is hard to come by and so they're cost-cutting. All have lots of free cashflow and reasonable dividend yields. He prefers JNJ. 

HOLD

Vaccine discoveries good for business.
Does not own shares at this time.
Market for pharmaceuticals separating between strong and weak players.
Current share price fairly valued.


BUY ON WEAKNESS

Buy drug stocks when there's no good news about their drug pipelines, or else you pay up when there is good news, in which case it becomes a trade, not investment.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

This large global biopharma company has reported continued success in a oncology based treatment for a blood cancer effecting 180,000 new patients annually.  The company is building cash reserves while debt is retired.  It trades at 22x earnings and supports a 21% ROE.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $27, looking to achieve $45 -- upside potential of 26%.  Yield 4.5%

(Analysts’ price target is $45.07)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate GSK as a TOP PICK.  We like that cash reserves are holding steady, despite an aggressive retirement of debt.  It trades at 22x earnings and supports a 18% ROE.  The solid dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 50% of cash flow.  The company is partnering with another pharma to develop Parkinson's disease treatments.  We continue to recommend a stop at $27, looking to achieve $41 -- upside potential over 20%.  Yield 4.6%

(Analysts’ price target is $40.89)
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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 16/25, Up 14.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with GSK is progressing well.  To remain disciplined, we recommend trailing up the stop (from $27) to $32 at this time.