(Past Top Pick  Sept. 13, 2017, Up 4%) He's expecting a lot more from this company. It's been in the woodshed for a while, falling to around $15 from the high-$20's. Investors are regaining their confidence in ALA who had trouble with some companies they invested in. They have since resolved that and cut loose those troubled companies. So, how will they now deploy their capital? Lately, AD they have been some good deployments. AD is on its way to recovery and he sees significant capital appreciation coming.

It looks really good. Recently broke a downtrend since 2015. It tends to get stuck at $20 that we're now approaching. Everything is turning up for this stock. There's more volume. Just hit the golden cross.

He has a small short position. He doesn’t think it is a bad company, but the earnings trend has been down. They have made a few bad investments. The company invests mostly in debt rather than taking an equity position in the companies it invests in. Its portfolio is concentrated, 8-to-10 companies. He doesn’t think the dividend is at risk. Tax loss selling season will start in 6 weeks, so this is likely to keep going down into then. After that is over, he expects to look at it from the long side again.

He's been a fan for a while. Its troubles are behind them. He expects AD will announce serious investments by year's end that should revive investor confidence, but he also wants them to be careful with deploying capital. Management is sharp. He's hopeful and expects valuations in the mid/high-20s next year.

Private equity. Hasn’t looked at it for a while. Tucking in acquisitions. Missed a couple of quarters. Balance sheet better than it was. But in the end, still not hitting targets. Going to struggle over next year. (Analysts’ price target is $19.72.)

Dividend of 9% helps the bottom line. Dividend quality is sufficient right now. Use $16.80 as an initial reduce point, exit at $16.30 or a bit below. Expects stock around $20 by end of the year. Yield is 9.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $19.72.)

The dividend is 10%, and the payout is 84% of trailing cash flow. He prefers to buy stocks that pay less than 75% of their cash flow. Earnings grew significantly last quarter, but estimated earnings decline this year and grow modestly next year. There is an extremely wide spread of earnings estimates, making valuation of the company more challenging. He thinks there are better risk-adjusted returns in other stocks. He thinks it is likely that the dividend will be maintained, but at an 84% payout ratio, there is a risk that it will not be maintained and reduction of the dividend would cause a drop in the price of the stock.