Andrew Pink Birchcliff Energy Ltd. BIR-T HOLD Apr 30, 2025

Good for TFSA. The company is on solid footing with the energy outlook positive for 2-3 years. Oil prices today are higher than last year's expectations. Also, we haven't seen the oil exploration which is normal for this part of the cycle. Be careful, given the emergence of EVs which is a long-term trend, though term there are question marks.

He's been buying other small nat gas names. Cut dividend, a good thing because they were using debt to fund it. Next year, payout ratio should drop to 73% with $4 gas, a lot more defendable. Concerns about debt, takeaway capacity, and CEO succession. Cleaner names elsewhere. Yield is 6.7%.

Owning a company that's more cyclical is not owned for the dividend yield. You can find 6-7% dividend yields on companies that aren't as volatile. This one is fine, but tied to underlying commodity prices. The group hasn't performed exceptionally well.

If he's correct, dividend was cut in half earlier this year, now yielding about 6.5%. On the high end for the industry, as capex takes a lot funding. Once cut, he assumes they won't cut again, at least not right away.

Western Canadian oil and natural gas producer. Does not own shares. Not a good investment due to weak natural gas prices. 82% of production is natural gas which is not profitable at this time. If natural gas prices increase - would recommend Tourmaline. 

BIR beat estimates nicely across the board, with a very big beat on EBITDA at $132M. Average production was ahead of estimates at 78,358 b/d. Operationally, things look fine, but it did lower guidance on expected lower prices. Still, consensus calls for good growth overall in 2025. The balance sheet has some debt but is OK overall. The stock reacted well to the news, and we would be fine holding this for sector exposure. 
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If nat gas spikes to $5, this might give you a higher return. It's smaller than Compares to Tourmaline and Arc which have scale in their projects.

Likes the energy sector, this is a great name within it. Attractive valuation. If you believe in decent energy demand and oil prices moving higher, which he believes, a name to add to your portfolio. Yield is 6.5%.

It is suffering much more than energy stocks in general. If it breaks $6 then buy for a swing trade.

Looks as though it's trying to break out. Be aware that there was a false breakout earlier this year. So you really want to see the peak back in March or so taken out.

Bases are good, and they say that "the greater the base the better the case". Pretty good base here of a year or more; a breakout would be powerful on the stock. (But if it fails, can also be powerful to the downside.) If the breakout is for real this time, tons of upside. He loves base breakouts; he wrote a book called Sideways on that topic.