A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. To find where we are in a Bull market, it is tough to look at indices like the S&P 500 and read it. He uses Berkshire Hathaway as a bellwether which shows the lows of March 2009 through to the current date to see where we are in the cycle. He assumes we are going to have 3 great advances, Elliott Waves, which the Berkshire Hathaway chart shows. The 2^nd advance in an Elliott wave is the biggest advance where the easy money is made. Now we have gone through another corrective period, which he thinks is now completed. With that advance, we should advance to new highs. Goldman Sachs and the S&P 500 charts show the same pattern. You cannot have a Bull market without the leadership from the financials, and that is beginning now. The 3^rd up legs are unpredictable and dangerous, so you have to be careful in 3^rd up leg advances. This current advance should persist through next year. As long as the financials are leading and making new highs, we’ll be fine. Also, the economy sensitive transports are now going to begin a new bull phase, and that should begin now.

Energy. He is starting to get interested. We had a rally in energy and now it has pulled back a little. If we get this new Bull next year, it is going to be a global expansion bull.

Small caps? Looking at the Russell 2000 (IWM-US) chart there is a financial crisis peak in 2007 followed by a rebound bull in 2009-2011. This was then followed by a small bear in 2011 and then a 2^nd advance followed by a small bear. We may break out of that and make new highs. This is the time to get involved with small caps.

Markets. Since he was last on the show the S&P has almost rallied back to its old highs. He saw a bottom and had to wait two days to get confirmation, then bought over the two following days. Technology has broken out so he overweighted it on the US side. He also likes yield plays like Canadian banks and telecoms where the down trend has finished and they have broken out. He sees no problems in market breadth. The S&P may pause here before it moves higher.

Markets. The good parts of the market are those not related to oil or resources. Thomson Reuters, Canadian banks, insurance companies, REITs are not bad, but they are all getting a little bit toppy and a little bit expensive. The pursuit is to try to find good value in areas that are buyable. If oil can bottom at around $49, $54 in 2016 and $60 in 2017, and natural gas can do something similar, then you could start picking away. However, they are still expensive relative to their 5 years. Also, doesn’t know if the game of the Saudis is over yet. The bond market has been signalling that it is concerned about global growth. The bigger risk for some time has been lower yields. Even if Yelin does do her 25 basis points it is probably “one and done”, and he thinks we are in the low interest rate environment for quite some time. The Cdn$ can easily go down to $0.73-$0.74, but if you are looking at long-term wealth building, you are probably going to have the Cdn$ back at $0.85-$0.87 in the next 5 years or so. Doesn’t know that you should be buying US companies, but if you can do it through a currency hedged ETF, where currency won’t hurt you, then it makes a lot of sense. He is trying to get the dividend tax credit and dividends that can grow, without having to buy another currency. There are still good opportunities.

Markets. Fascinating how quickly sentiment can change from the negative “things are slowing down” to “OK we can breathe easy”. Earnings have come in, but aren’t rock solid. Companies are beating expectations, but through the year expectations have all been lowered. Top line growth is dramatically slowing. Part of that is the oil patch, but we are just not getting the top line oomph. Lower interest rates have created some levering up and we are back up 10%. Canada hasn’t quite had that snap back the way the US has. His concern is that there are fewer and fewer names that are making new highs and making advances. Going through earnings season, it seems that if you have a miss they shoot you, and those that hang in there continue to go. He is not seeing signs of a really healthy market. He is sitting with 25% cash. It is too early to go back into commodities, but on some of the other names that have gone down, you can wait a little bit.

Gold. The key things he watches are #1 the US dollar, and #2 is what are Central Banks doing. From the US$ perspective he thinks maybe it has done its big move. Individual Chinese demand for gold seems to be strong. At $1100, gold companies can’t produce gold. Gold is pretty stable here. His preferred way to play gold is through Goldcorp (G-T).

Markets. This big snap back is a reaction of the market to the Fed. The market got a little oversold technically. Seasonally we are moving into a good period. Markets are back to normal, which is a volatile nature. We’ve had the down, now we have to snap back up. Suspects there might be a little backing and filling here, but moving into the post US Thanksgiving period is generally quite strong seasonally. Under the earnings we are seeing, which are quite tepid in total, that there are a lot of good things happening. He is looking for organic growth in companies as opposed to a revision of multiples upward.

Markets. He is focused on the continuing divergence between Central Banks. Global economic growth is challenged; otherwise you wouldn’t have divergent monetary policy. In that environment, you want to be careful about how your portfolio is positioned. Certainly for Canadian investors, it warrants having global diversification because you are going to see other parts of the world grow at a different pace, if not a little bit more quickly than the Canadian economy. Thinks US growth is going to accelerate next year, albeit modestly. Also, thinks European growth is going to accelerate. He favours developed markets versus emerging markets. His focus is on equity income, dividend growers where you have some visibility of earnings, cash flow and dividend growth that hopefully should warrant capital appreciation potential and outperformance. Biased towards big cap. The business cycle still has some legs to it, and in that environment you just want to focus on companies that are going to be able to deliver very consistent, predictable earnings growth, and not try to make cyclical bets where you could lose a lot of money.

Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.Hydro One? A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has some medium to longer-term concerns, which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.A new IPO and starts trading tomorrow. Wait at least one month before stepping in. Feels the valuation is reasonable. Has somemedium to longer term concerns which will only be addressed in the course of time. This was a government owned company that is now going to become public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.This was a government owned company that is now going to be public, and you always want to pay careful attention as to whether or not management is going to be able to deliver some of the cost savings that they articulated. A good way to get a relatively stable dividend.

Markets. Leading up to the correction, he was quite cautious on the markets, but now with the correction he has bought in, somewhat into September. It was so oversold he figured that it was a bounce. It bounced more than what he would have expected. He is feeling pretty much the way he did in the summer and is now starting to re-establish his Short positions. Has been selling into the strength in the past week or so. This is particularly in the areas that have moved the most. Energy is starting to act a little better, but he is watching it closely to see if it is going to break out to the upside. A lot of the reasons why he was bearish before have not gone away. A tough call at this time of year. You get some good seasonality and it could go higher. It is surprising how quickly the S&P 500 is not that far from the all-time high. The German market recovered half of its losses which was down 24%. A pretty good snap back rally, but for the wrong reasons. It is the belief that the central banks are the ultimate rescue operation out there. People should still be very cautious going forward.

Energy. The oil glut is not completed yet. We are starting to see a pickup in demand which is good. The nice thing about oil, compared to some other commodities, is that it is not so totally Chinese dependent. Iraq production is coming back on stronger and the additional Iranian production is going to be coming back soon. Shale producers in the US have cut back recently, but they are ready to come back on in a hurry. Oil, for a long, long time, is not going anywhere close to where it came down from. A price in the $60-$70 range is probably the best you can expect for a while. Expect you could see this sometime in 2016, later in the year.

Gold? Had it as a short a while ago, but does not own any gold in his portfolios. Believes the US Federal Reserve is going to move on interest rates in December. Unless the economy totally deteriorates, they’ll start that move. The US$ will go higher compared to the euro and everything else, and that will put downward pressure on gold.

Markets. September and October were just a bull market correction. Consumer and tech stocks have gone right back to where they were after the correction. The bounce in energy and emerging markets may just be short covering. The bounce in energy and commodity stocks has waned. The old leadership has re-established. He thinks this year will finish pretty strong over the next two months.

Markets. Europe’s purchasing manager’s data is showing some improvement. The outlook for global manufacturing is trending toward lower. Today’s PMI number does not suggest more QE. Global economies are diverging at present. Europe is cheap in valuations compared to US markets. Two children per family in China does not mean India will be bigger than China by 2025. China will be the biggest economy in the world within the next number of years, but India and some of Africa are building to the largest population. To him everything is centered about the aging demographic.