A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Energy. He got quite bullish on energy in Jan/Feb 2016 as breadth started to improve. In the last 6 weeks, breadth for the energy sector started to contract. Oil consolidated sideways for a couple of months. In energy, in almost all cases, they break down from there. You are facing a big headwind at the sector level. Fracing has made energy a mass manufacturer. That is why production of oil in the US is up 700,000 barrels since last February, and storage is at an all-time high. If you want to be in energy, which is a tough space right now, you want to be in a low-cost producer that will be able to take share. He owns virtually no energy.

US defence stocks for a long-term hold? Defence is a theme he has been focused on for a couple of years. We have been coming off multiyear lows in growth in defence spending. There is going to be more defence spending going forward. He likes that the contracts are really long term and have a pretty good credit behind them. Also, it is the only type of company that never talks about what is coming next. Raytheon (RTN-N), General Dynamics (GD-N) and Lockheed Martin (LMT-N) are very attractive.

North American rails and Hunter Harrison? Transports were the 1^st group to roll over in the spring of 2015, and one of the 1^st groups to turn up in February in 2016 as the market started to repair itself. They’ve gotten a little sloppy recently. Within the group, you have the airlines, and a couple of the US airlines have gotten a little sloppy. There are a couple of rails that have become sloppier. When he looks at the group, Canadian National (CNR-T) is probably the most attractive, and looks very, very good. CSX (CSX-Q) has been the leader in the rally, and in the short run it may have been based on “buy the rumour, sell the news”, and is now pulling back, possibly to $38-$39.

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1^st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.

BREXIT. The biggest thing from their perspective is, what does Scotland do. Scotland wants to hold a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019. Once they go through the two-year period of the negotiations to either stay or not stay, it is a mess. We haven’t felt one iota of economic impact in terms of trade, etc., and we probably won’t know for a year, or maybe 2, on how this plays out. It does speak to the fact that the UK and the EU doesn’t work, and eventually it is going to start coming apart. This is just the beginning.

Sectors with the best value right now? A couple of weeks ago, low volatility areas had been underperforming significantly. Markets have been strong since the Trump election, up 10%, 15%, 20% depending on where you look and what sectors. Low volatility sectors like utilities, consumer staples have underperformed. Those sectors, right now, screen as cheap because they are much more defensive. What typically happens with fund managers, is when they are positive on the outlook for the market, they are investing in more cyclicals; whether consumer, industrial or technology, companies that are going to get much more of a beta lift when the markets are doing well. When the markets are expected to correct, they can’t go to cash, most managers have to stay fully invested. They sell their consumer cyclical and they buy a consumer staple; they sell their industrial and buy a health care; sell their financial and buy a utility. This takes down their beta or their sensitivity to the downside. The low volume sectors are somewhat attractive right now compared to some of the more cyclical sectors.

Sectors you like and dislike? Real estate is interest rate sensitive, so not his favourite right now. He is underweight. What is really cheap? A couple of days ago, gold was cheap and he was nibbling in this sector. However, if you are talking about a strategy for the long-term, the next 2, 3, 5 years, financials in the US are still pretty cheap. When he is tactical, and moving money around pretty actively, he is looking out 3 months, maybe 6. He has no idea what is going to happen 4 or 5 years from now.

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.

Markets. YOMO (Year of Missing Out) is a great description of the Toronto housing market, but we are also starting to get this in equity markets. Stocks are moving, but simply because everyone is afraid to Sell as you don’t want to miss out, and valuations are starting to get stretched, and no one wants to get out of equities because Donald Trump is going to solve all the world’s problems. We have seen this great interest rate increase, which is usually a sign of good times, but investors are already paying for the tax that is going to get cut, and we are already paying for the regulations that are going to get cut. If people’s expectations are not filled, they tend to get disappointed, and the next response is to Sell.

When will Canadian banks have stock splits? The time is close. Once they get over the $100-$120 level, it is probably time for a split. Splits don’t matter. They are just basically creating more shares at less price.

Zinc. Inventories are down and supply is limited. Chinese are shutting some capacity in, in terms of the refining of the raw metal. Zinc is on a roll. It has been tight, and will probably stay tight as mines have shut down. There is no reason the price cannot spike up to the $2 levels. The best 3 plays in Canada are Teck Resources (TECK.B-T), the world’s largest net zinc producer; Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T) an intermediate play; Trevali Mining (TV-T) a more junior company.

Canadian Banks? These are in a very enviable regulatory environment, having very few competitors. They have stable businesses, make a lot of money, pay good dividends with reasonable growth. Also, there is the issue of the housing market. If there was a significant correction in Vancouver and Toronto housing, that would hurt all the banks. These should be a core part of your portfolio.

Canadian Federal Budget. We’ve heard that there might be some tax increases coming, potentially in the capital market, which would not be encouraging. The government needs to raise money for some of the initiatives they have, especially with infrastructure building which is behind schedule. To the extent that they use the money to accelerate infrastructure building to encourage innovation, that would be a good thing.

Market. To some extent, weak consumer sentiment is holding back Canadian stocks. The consumer in Canada is largely overspent. Debt levels have been rising to very, very high levels, which would put a lot of pressure on a lot of people if interest rates were to go up very much. Also, our economy has been a little more tepid than what has been in the US. There is a lot of expectation built into the US market that could prove to be somewhat disappointing down the road. This is a time to be cautious, paying really hard attention to valuations, what you are paying for stocks, why you are buying them, what is your holding period and how does it fit into your portfolio. This is a good time to have a reserve on the side.