A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Outlook for the Dow? Tested upper limit 3 times. Triple top. Significant level of resistance. We have a lower low, but not a higher high. Could reignite further selling pressure. Until we break out higher or lower, we're in a consolidation phase.

MACD explanation. Stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. A momentum indicator. Want to see the convergence do better on different time scales. When momentum is trending higher, a crossover is a trigger to buy, a crossover below is a trigger to sell. He looks for divergences to see if there's waning buying or selling demand for a stock. Momentum negatively diverging from price is typically a precursor to a downturn.

Market. He radically cut equities over the last week from 100% to 25%. The market does not do well for the next 6 months: 'sell in May and go away'. The down drafts this time of year tend to be longer and deeper. On the S&P we are trading today below the 50 day moving average. The market might be losing momentum.

Recommendation on an inverse ETF for oil and gas in the US. He does not know of one. You should be careful of inverse ETFs. Watch out for your time period. It is okay for a short period. He has no US recommendation.

Canadian Banks. They are an interesting play because they are in everyone's portfolios. They have not really done very well. They have petered out. They are not in their seasonal period. They are probably not the best place to be. If it break down there is further weakness.

Forestry Stocks. Seasonality is the same as home builders and banks. They broke down to a key level and then broke that recently. It has fallen off sharply. This is not a sector to get into.

Trump has strong support across the board in America; China doesn't play by the rules. He doesn't agree with Trump's style of negotiation, but at least he is calling China on that issue. The markets are spooked by an America-China trade deal not happening tomorrow. No question: tariffs will hit both sides, though there's almost no inflation. We have the lowest unemployment since 1969, which is remarkable, yet we have no inflation--and this confuses central bankers around the world. How? We don't know. This is the most important long-term factor on markets. China has a 6% growth rate, but productivity has been falling for 15 years, yet also has little inflation. Meanwhile, the US is running a high deficit and some day it'll have to be paid back. Down the road, a dramatic melt-up could happen.

Is there enough liquidity and volatility to trade option on leveraged U.S. ETFs? Would there be enough volatility to make day trades? Buy options on the volatility index instead. This index is six times more volatile than the S&P 500. He thinks (not sure) that there are options on a 2x volatility index in the U.S. which means 12x the leverage.

A perpetual strategy using a call and a put option to protect a portfolio against downside risk. Say stock X reaches a top at $60 and it falls below $50. No. You're talking about buying a put option to protect a stock you own. If X peaks at $60, you could buy a $60 put option with a 6-month term, that'll cost you $1. If the stock falls, put option rises in value, which is equivalent to a short. He doesn't like this strategy. If you're worried about a stock at a certain point, then go back and examine why you bought it. Otherwise, why keep it? Sell it.

Market Outlook There has been excessive exuberance in the market. Since Halloween there has been massive market volatility, but the VIX has not moved. You had growth in the economy and the Central Banks were expecting a cut in interest rates. The market has gotten ahead of itself and now the market is only expecting a cut with modest belief. He would caution investors about the trade talks in China, but once that is resolved the market will re-focus on market expectations, which are much more realistic compared to a few weeks ago. Be cautious, don't strap on new exposure just yet.

The market has been on a tear this year, so Monday-Tuesday were a cool-off. Not to worry. It's healthy and it happens. 78% of TSX stocks have been up year-to-date and so it's a little overheated. Retail sales have been negative for 5 of the last 6 months in Canada, so some took this as an ominous sign, given consumers are overleveraged. But last month we saw a year-over-year sales uptick. Also, housing starts perked back up, led by Toronto and Vancouver. The union saved some GM 300 jobs today (3000 were originally laid off), and he tips his hat to the union.

How to calculate the PEG ratio? Price earnings to growth ratio. You gauge whether the mulitple on current or expected earnings is reasonable vs. the growth prospects of a company. Companies growing faster warrant a higher PEG because the PE in a few years will be much higher. So, it's price divided by the earnings. Some may use the earnings estimate for 2019 or the blended forward 12-month estimate. Find the PEG in analysts research reports (a concensus among some) and look for a 5-year growth rate, because a recession could artificially deflate earnings for one year.

There's a divergence between US and world stocks, and the gap has been widening the past year as US stocks decelerate. It's harder to find value in America. Pulling US stocks down is any comment from the Fed and companies reporting weakness. Investors are waiting for something to happen on the US-China trade front, there's bark than bite here. He can't see Trump causing pain for middle-class voters.

20-30% of family offices are in private equity, so worth investing in? Yes, it's easier for smaller investors to invest in private equity firms. Large family offices are sophisticated and fee conscious, but it's hard for small investors to understand their fees or what they are buying. Also, so much institutional money is flowing into infrastructure an private equity that it's driving down yields and returns. Warning: the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. These are illiquid investments. If you pay too much for them, it'll be hard to get a return.