Market Commentary — Page 569

Market Commentary

COMMENT

He's not investing in resources now, doesn't see the upside. There's been a pullback in tech names like Uber, Lyft and Shopify, which is the first crack in these names. Maybe this is temporary or long-term. He still likes tech. He believes that Trump wants a deal ahead of the next election which will benefit his campaign, but China isn't playing along. This makes it tough to invest in tech hardware which is seeing volatility. Trump has until Q1 2020 to sign the deal or else he loses business confidence. This is the most-anticipated recession; the market has been talking about one for 18 months. But investors are well-positioned with REITs, staples and utilities are hitting new highs.

COMMENT

He's not overly concerned with the current sell-off. Sit back and relax a bit. Markets have been sideways for 18 months, actually. It's still a bull market. Underneath this mess, we've had three mini-recessions in the past decade. Unemployment remains at all-time lines and productivity is still good. Investors are scared, not putting money to work. The markets are 2-3% below all-time highs. People are overreacting. He's holding more cash than usual at 15%. He won't turn bearish until American and Chinese consumer numbers turn negative. The big money now is to sit on your hands--be patient, not bearish.

COMMENT

Where the Dow is going Boeing has issues. Apple is doing well. And so on. There are undercurrents in the big 30 names, price-weighted, held within the Dow. The Dow isn't perfectly constructed, but oddly enough the S&P is very correlated to the Dow. But he'd prefer to look at the S&P which holds a wider breadth of stocks so he sees what is going on in the markets.

N/A

Market. There are clearly risks as we go into the fourth quarter. There is a lot of political risk. The US China trade talks this weekend are important. China is playing off Trump's weaknesses. We are looking at a year when there are technically no earnings growth. He thinks the US don’t want Trump to have an election win. Congress will not pass an infrastructure spending bill. The unfunded pension liability globally is estimated to be $200-300 Trillion over the next 30-50 years. Low interest rates are a key reason for this. This problem will not be solved with interest rates going to zero again.

N/A

If you can buy puts in your portfolio you should consider covered call put protection. It is challenged, though. His funds work in this way.

BUY

Defined outcome ETFs from Innovator. They create a structure with options in the ETF to make potentially 10% upside. It has strategies that protect you for from downside. He loves these strategies.

WEAK BUY

He likes the residential real estate space but does not know of anything that is cheap in space. He likes the sector and thinks it will be an out-performer in the REIT space.

N/A

Educational Segment. Eventshares created an ETF that deals with government policy. He does not see Trump winning the election last year. PLCY-N is overweight energy and industrials but it is a bet on LNG, refining, utilities and infrastructure. Also it is into military and defense. This allows you to participate in some of the dramatic changes.

N/A

Market. Keep some extra cash right now. Investors are being lulled by some false things going on like in the US they keep saying the market hit a new high. Over the last year it has not gone anywhere. With all the uncertainty going on, and earnings not being that great, it is a good time to have some extra cash. He is willing to give up some near term gains in order to hold cash.

BUY

Gold. He bought in the last few months. (FNV-T)

BUY

Regional Banks. He owns two. See his Top Picks today. He likes the regional banks. As we swing to value stocks, money should flow back into regional banks.

COMMENT

He's bullish, though there remains seasonal risk to mid-October. His own Bear-o-Meter indicates that risk is actually declining in the markets which are looking for an entry point as soon as a few days, perhaps a few weeks. But these are trades, not long-term investments, that would last only a few months. The US-China trade deal will probably be settled in the short term, which will result in a market lift. The US election begins in February, so probably sell at that time. That could be the final rally. He is bullish, but not long-term. In late-2020 into 2021 he feels more bearish when a downturn could happen. He likes Europe--it has sold off and is setting up for a buyer's market. Same goes with emerging markets, such as Brazil. These are all places where investors are not (America is a crowded trade now).

COMMENT

The S&P and TSX have hit double tops since June, so when to re-enter these markets? We haven't seen a double-top yet, because the markets need to fall down to the "neckline." Rather, these markets are currently consolidating.

COMMENT

Market Outlook All of Europe, Germany in particular, is looking soggy as exports dry up. US manufacturing is also slowing. We not facing recession just yet, however. Employment figures are showing a big division between service and manufacturing jobs -- service jobs outnumbering manufacturing by 10:1. The service sector is still growing, but wage growth is decelerating. He didn't think today's job numbers were disappointing as the jobs increased by 45,000 over the month. He is watching a US steel story. Tariff increases have led to farmers cutting back plantings, which has led to a slowdown in farm equipment purchases. You have to be aware of the unintended consequences.

COMMENT

Data was mixed for the economy in the US. Tariff wars turned out to be non-productive in the past and this will probably be the case now. He's been reducing equities and focusing more in ETFs.

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Where the Dow is going(A Commentary)

Market. (A Commentary)

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Educational Segment. (A Commentary)

Market. (A Commentary)

Gold. (A Commentary)

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

The S&P and TSX have hit double tops since June, so when to re-enter these markets?(A Commentary)

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