A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
He predicts money will flood into America (and its dollar) in the coming years. He's overweight US dollars. Where else can you go? Europe? Japan? No. We're entering earnings season, thank goodness, and not headlines. He doesn't know if Trump will be re-elected, contrary to the consensus that he will.
COMMENT
His Canadian large caps are doing well except Rogers, but the small caps are getting whipped around--which means opportunities to add to industrials and consumer discretionaries. Just in: Aritzia reported a serious earnings beat with same-store sales growth. JNJ has been battered by lawsuits, but he's been picking away at it to build a long-term position. What legal company should he invest in, given all these lawsuits?
COMMENT
Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.
Eric NuttallUnknown
COMMENT
Back to highs again with the expectations that the US and China will get some things done. The NSADAQ was up around 2%, with a smaller inverted yield curve. Technology, industrials and everything with China was up. Consumer stocks fell. China has only said that they would buy soy beans again. Patents and safety are another thing, and this is where they need to agree.
David DriscollUnknown
COMMENT
Normally you see sell-offs in September and October. It's a good time to watch when the sell-off is done and it's a buying opportunity. Things tend to be better in Q4 than in Q1.
David DriscollUnknown
N/A
Market. He forecasts an inventory build on oil and then due to Saudi attacks, a risk premium comes in. He thinks we will break $50 in the next month or so. Tax loss selling should be very severe this year. Investors should look to be buyers on tax loss selling this year.
Josef SchachterUnknown
N/A
Electric cars: We will not use them for long distance. There are about 100 million electric vehicles sold a year. Reserves are shrinking and we are running out of reserves to service the remaining gas vehicles.
Josef SchachterUnknown
COMMENT
Optimistic about trade talks? No. Tomorrow's the deadline, and doesn't imagine major ground will be broken. Some feel Trump needs a symbolic win. This is much ado about nothing. Investors can put too much emphasis on political drama, and not enough on economic fundamentals. These are pretty good in the US, but there is general macro economic uncertainty.
COMMENT
WeWork is the largest user of Manhattan office space. If that IPO is unsuccessful it could have a major impact on the real estate market there. Who would back-fill the commitments to the space. It is not so much of an impact in Canada however. The multiples applied to WeWork are high.
Joshua VargheseUnknown
COMMENT
Embassy Office REIT is India's first REIT IPO, backed by BlackStone. His company was asked to help anchor this high quality holding of assets and it is up 40% since the IPO in March. It trades on the Mumbai exchange -- difficult for Canadian investors to access.
Joshua VargheseOwned
COMMENT
A new GTA REIT Continuum REIT is his single largest holding in their Real Estate fund -- a private fund that just launched its prospectus last week. It holds apartments in the GTA area of Ontario. They are exploring an IPO -- a pure play exposure in this very hot market. Rent controls in the market actually caused other rents to spike as people held onto their apartments. This REIT will take advantage of the opportunity to raise rents on the units available. This shows rent controls are not the answer to keeping rent affordable. You need to increase the supply.
Joshua VargheseOwned
COMMENT
Markets are swayed by sentiment, optimistic today going into tomorrow's trade negotiations. She doesn't think it will be an all-encompassing deal, perhaps at least a stop in tariffs which would be positive. The trade war is impacting the world with two quarters of US contraction in manufacturing as well as in Europe. Overall numbers are starting to soften. Some progress in trade is needed. FedEx is a proxy to the trade war, but they bought they bought a European transport company, but need to invest more money and take more time to integrate them; also European economic softness doesn't help. Meanwhile, online commerce means more business-to-commerce, so FedEx and UPS need to invest more there. The US consumer remains very strong, and wage growth is rising. Consumers have some money in their pockets, so Costco is benefitting.
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