A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Last night's 1st US presidential debate The two presidential candidates in last night's first debate did NOT bash the healthcare companies. That's good. Health stocks, even CVS, rallied today. The moderator pointed out that Trump failed to replace Obamacare, so Obamacare is there to stay. Another tailwind for health. Also, Biden didn't bash the big banks. Good for banks. The debate made him optimistic that we will find a Covid vaccine soon. Third, there was little bashing of China, which is good for big tech stocks which detests a US-China trade war.

Near-zero interest rates are definitely boosting real estate sales in apartments and houses. Borrowing is so cheap. A private buyer now would be making a bet in certain stable sectors during this pandemic: industrial warehouses, apartments in affordable parts of North America, and single-family rental homes (people can work anymore now). These are all stable and strong. However, retail, office and student houses have questionable stability and are at risk in this Covid environment.

Washington's delay in passing the next stimulus package will doom thousands of small businesses. Viewers want him to avoid talking politics, but good luck. That's impossible.... Big chains in industries like hotels have deep pockets and will survive, but small indies will perish. He's not being political, but stating the facts. Let small businesses die? They employ thousands and thousands, so think again.

Market. During the worst pandemic in 100 years, we have interest rates that will have a profound effect on the economy as well as the social structure, for 50 years to come. The low interest rates are causing the inflation of assets, rather than goods and services. Bond prices are at world record highs. Obscure art and wine prices are soaring. People are looking for places to put money. All this money that is being printed is going into 'stuff'. Investments are being made into assets that people really need to own for life. People buying real estate for investment reasons are crowding out those who want a place to raise a family and so on.

Banks involved in Money Laundering. Technically there is a trend of replacing what is involved in the processing of payments and that is block-chain technology. It defines the reputational hit banks take from the issue. None of the Canadian banks have bounced back since the start of COVID. He is not saying Canadian banks are involved in money laundering but there is something happening that will impact their revenues 5 years from now.

There is a feeling that reliable dividend payers are just like bonds. You need to buy companies that have a capacity to grow their dividends and this is more important than their current level. You also don’t want to risk that the dividend is cut. Dividends should be paid out of earnings.

Sell off. The summer has been a pretty benign period that may have lulled some investors into a false sense of security. We are heading into a tunnel and markets are readjusting. The sharp rebound we saw is stalling out. There is uncertainty of the length of fiscal stimulus. Investors are starting to take some money off the table. Canadian dividend stocks are outperforming month to date.

Infrastructure stocks. He's been focusing on the energy grid and renewable energy in terms of infrastructure. There is unprecedented fiscal stimulus coming into the economy and infrastructure stocks should profit from it.

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES will direct-list next week Not an IPO, but a direct listing coming next week. It's a secretive company, because that's the business they do. They offer a data analytics platform for the intelligence/defence community. They're expanding to commercial clients. They saw in 2019 25% growth, but first-half-2020 saw 49% growth. Negative: they forecast 46% growth in the current quarter, but forecast it to slow to 41% for the year. Also, they pay a lot of stock-based compensation (not good) to retain talent. Third, they're willing to take ethically dubious work from governments that even Google won't touch--that may be an issue for investors. And their corporate governance policies are borderline obnoxious and selfish; the three founders control 49% of the voting power no matter what happens, even if they sell down their position. Also, they leant $25 million to one of its founders in 2016 and he just repaid it last month. They burn a lot of cash and issue a lot of stock. When it lists next week, this could start trading at $10 (20x sales). He hates the feudal corporate share structure. Just don't pay much for it, just $10.

Markets under pressure in September creating opportunities? There's always volatility in an election cycle, which will bring opportunity. Covid and low interest rates are two other dynamics also affecting markets. The market will trade down in a relatively tight range.

Your view of the tech sector going forward? Those stocks that haven't rallied with high yields but are sustainable, such as telcos, that's the place to go. The rally is not tech, but US tech. Why would you buy Amazon at 143x PE? The smarter trade is to buy Alibaba at 24x. Chasing expensive US tech will eventually result in investors getting their heads handed to them on a plate. The opportunities are the ones that have lagged, so go there.

Main headwinds or tailwinds for stocks right now? Market's been struggling for quite some time to figure out a value for companies. Some companies are doing well, and others are not. If you think about where the economy might be in a year, how high is high when interest rates are zero, and is there value in the struggling stocks? Market is digesting Covid flare-ups, US election, politicians bickering about fiscal stimulus. Market's in flux. Don't read too much into any one given day.