A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The largest headwind today is geo-political. Trump is now using tariffs as a threat to those who oppose his takeover of Greenland. This is creating volatility in Europe. However he is aware of the markets and the US economy.The Mexican, Canadian and US trade agreement comes up for review in July. It is vital and many corporations want to see it stay. Mark Carney is encouraging infrastructure spending and opening up trade links with countries other than the US, including China. This should stimulate business activity in Canada.

The question was on the debt of the US. and if they're using the right type of stimulus. The debt in GDP in the US is increasing but this is happening all over the world. There is concern longer term but debt provides positive short term stimulus with incentives to business. Watch for the 10 year treasury yields going up and bond yields rising since this would be a headwind for stocks.

The question was about the potential still being there for gold to rise. No one knows where gold is going. It has had a huge run but she wouldn't chase it. Because of its momentum wait for at least a 10% drop before buying. Producers are affected  by the direction in the price of gold. She doesn't own gold in her portfolio.

So far so good in 2026. Markets will be focussed on the geopolitical until tech earnings arrive. There are fiscal tailwinds, but should support earnings growth this year. Some AI names and Mag 7 have been underperforming. Geopolitics usually don't impact markets, but tend to with energy, such as the chance of the US attacking Iran. Gold can go higher from here, but gold terrifies him. A correction could be violent.

If the court strikes them down, Trump could use another excuse than "emergency". A ruling would be a hornet's nest. Does the US give back all the money collected? Doesn't think a ruling would have a meaningful impact. Hedge: it's not a tradeable event.

There's more value in international than domestic banks. In a Canadian taxable account, you need a Canadian bank stock.

A rule of thumb is to sell 50% if your position has doubled, then sell 50% if it doubles again.

Historically, when gold has led and have stocks have declined typically happens after stocks have seen extremes. There's a case to be made for gold to keep rising and outperform stocks by up to 50% for 5-10 years, based on historical data. Higher gold reflects a loss of confidence in governments controlling their spending. He doesn't expect governments to, so gold will go higher, though in a bumpy ride. He's nervously bullish. He will wait for a correction to buy.

It's a very logical step for the federal government to go to China, and to other countries, and sign those agreements. They have to forge their own path, stand on their own feet, and form agreements with other countries. They shouldn't be held hostage to ongoing negotiations with one trade partner.

Absolutely. Negotiations will take place later this year, and you never know if they'll be postponed again or not. If there's no agreement, it could get extended. We'll have to see what happens.

What he's seeing is a firm commitment to build Canada. There's a lot of excitement and a real investable theme. At some point real money will start flowing, and this will translate into operating results for companies.

Build Canada is a big theme, and he thinks it's here to stay. Given what's happening on geopolitics globally, we've seen what happened in Venezuela and the rhetoric around Greenland, and potentially the Panama Canal and Cuba. Look at the Monroe Doctrine, its history, and what it means. The US administration has been very active and very clear in communicating what their vision is for the future -- dominance of the Western Hemisphere. The playbook is pretty clear.

Against that reality, we have to really invest in national defense and domestic priorities. We have to stand firm so we can maintain our position against pressure from the US in the years to come.

It's true that energy, infrastructure, and defense are all interesting industries. However, Canada should count its blessings. We have immense natural resources that we should take advantage of, but we shouldn't build a whole economy around natural resources. We have to take the proceeds from that and invest in high technology and aerospace as well.

Last year was mainly driven by the resources complex. Gold prices have rallied a lot, after about 10 years of waiting for them to do so. Now it's happened on the back of geopolitics and other dynamics. It's anybody's guess where gold prices are going. 

Overall, Canadian markets have benefited tremendously from that. Canadian banks also did really well last year and carried the benchmarks higher.

At the same time, it's been a very bipolar market -- some industries are under pressure. A number of tech companies really underperformed last year on the back of AI threats. Question marks about whether their business models will be challenged or not and what AI developments mean for those businesses. So last year was a unique environment -- some companies did tremendously well, but others are under quite a bit of pressure.

A solid hold. Long-term outlook remains pretty healthy, especially on the commercial side. Residential side is not doing as well. Provision for credit losses has been going higher, but nothing too alarming. Doing a pretty good job on expenses. Sees growth of 10+% for the sector this year, and potentially next year as well.

Also likes their high capital ratios, as ROE is trending higher. Regulatory environment is becoming more favourable.

Rebroadcast of yesterday's show.