A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
The question is whether it's the pause that refreshes, or is it the end of the bigger run? It's a pause, with the caveat that it's an extended market. He's worried that there's not as much cash on the sidelines, bullish sentiment is high, and valuations are stretched. A lot of fast, hot money moved in and you have to shake the tree a little bit and see where the stronger holds are. He has cash and is getting ready to redeploy it in cyclicals like financials and industrials.
COMMENT
US bond market. The advice to sell all equities at 1% would still have a ways to go. Bond market is signalling slower growth ahead, earnings won't be growing as fast as expected. Growth expectations got a bit ahead of themselves. The Fed and money centre banks are still out there buying bonds, so that puts pressure on the yield. Rebalancing at quarter's end also. He's not concerned about the checkback, doesn't think it will last.
COMMENT
When's the next big correction? Not soon. Investors have been obsessing about this. Lots of newbie investors in the market. Market cycles are long. They don't just die of old age. Usually a bull market is brought to an end by either a cyclical or a structural recession. He sees scant evidence that either of those is imminent.
COMMENT
Aren't cycles compressing? He looked at that. Recoveries from bear markets are inversely proportional to depth and length of the bear market that preceded them. Short, sharp bear markets are typically followed by faster and stronger recoveries. Like an elastic band, the further you stretch it, the faster it snaps back. Today, markets have correctly priced in the rapid snap back in corporate profitability. If analysts are correct, TSX is poised to put up record corporate profits. Not a surprise that markets are at all-time highs. Rapid cycle of interest rate hikes could bring on a cyclical recession, but central banks are not signalling this. Interest rate derivatives market is also pricing in minimal rate hikes this year. Supply chain issues, and warehouses being empty not full, point to no recession.
COMMENT
10-year yield of 1.3%. US treasury rates bounced hard off their lows, and some froth has come off lately. Indicators indicate the economy is growing but decelerating, which shows we're moving from the rapid snap back to more of a steady state growth rate.
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ESG. ESG investing affects all the oil explorers and producers. The problematic effect on Canada is like ESG on steroids, given the political climate and green activism here. They own no explorers or producers in Canada or the US, and only one offshore.
COMMENT
TFSA vs. RRSP Best practice is to hold your highest return potential investments in a TFSA rather than an RRSP. TFSA is the most tax-advantaged account we have in Canada. Put GDP-type return stocks in your RRSP. Keep room in your TFSA for other opportunities.
COMMENT

Will it fall to 1%? Even if it approaches 1%, investors will get nervous, but she wouldn't sell everything. She expects financials will do better as tech is split between quality tech like Facebook and Google (good) and the super-high valuation tech stocks which won't do well. That said, she is terrible at trading on macro movements. She trades on micro. She does not trade on interest rate movements. If the economy is slowing, it will pressure rates as well as bank loan books. She remains long the banks. The banks will be good long-term with their attractive valuations.

COMMENT
The U.S. 10-year yield keeps falling Financial will go higher, tech goes lower, if rates keep falling. If rates fall to 1%, then all bets are off -- sell the ENTIRE market.
COMMENT

The U.S. 10-year yield keeps falling We've had lower rates for a long while, so this means the Fed will likely taper, the economy is slowing and this is as good as it gets for growth. Rates saw we won't have a great GDP number coming up in 6-12 months. The Fed will make a mistake if they tape now, because it will slow the economy and need to reverse it at the end of the year. If rates rise, buy cyclicals and commodities, not large-cap tech. But if we see a staglfation scenario, then be in commodities. The trade that covers both scenarios is copper (like FCX) because industrial metals will enjoy demand anyway.

COMMENT
Gambling stocks plunged today Take profits on gambling stocks. We've already seen the reopening trade, so it's as good as these stocks get. Online gambling, the other segment among these stocks, is not a reopening trade anyway, so there's no bounce to come.
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The U.S. 10-year yield keeps falling He disagrees with the Fed. He thinks we'll test 1.25% in the 10-year yield, but bets we will hit 2% by year's end. The markets could crater even below 1.25%, but he expects rates could go higher. In fact, rates can go higher, and the USD lower. We may be on the verge of this. If so, he would buy resources.
COMMENT
We're at a point in the road where the easy money has been made--reopening in China and America who have driven commodities hard. Investors are now taking a breather to determine how sustainable oil prices (and other commodities) will be going forward. Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield (now 1.37%) has paused the gold trade--June was its worst month in 4 years. May saw the worst inflation rise in years, and the U.S. Fed increased 2021 expectations from 2.5% to 3%. It will come down to how "transitory" inflation will be, and will get priced into gold the longer it stays sticky, especially going into 2022.
COMMENT
Delta variant. A noise factor. We have seen the positive impact of vaccinations and health measures. It is not eliminating transmissions but it is impacting hospitalizations. Markets respond with memory of what happened last time cases went up. However, the impact is reduced.
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