A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Has been a rollercoaster for energy investors. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. SPR release weighed down, and now there are fears for Omicron. The collapse in oil price is discounting 7M barrel per day collapse. This is equivalent for all planes on the planet not flying for months. The average Canadian oil company could privatize themselves with 5 years of cashflow. Would continue to be aggressive in oil.
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Heading towards to an energy crisis. There is a lack of investment in the space. Investors want returns and there is pressure from ESG. The themes are still intact for a supply crunch.
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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Generally, the stock market has been less volatile than many other years. Futures are up as well. Diversified portfolios that matches your risk tolerance is key. Time frame is also important. The markets cannot be predicted. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Markets. Seeing some change in tone in the last couple of weeks. Volatility has been subdued for a long time. That may or may not be unfolding right now. Inflation is now on investors' radar screens, as well as the new virus variants. For 2022, he expects ongoing economic growth at an above-trend rate, and above-trend growth in corporate profits. Jitters will sort themselves out in due course. December consistently is seasonally the strongest month in the year for the Canadian stock market.
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Focused on monetary policy? He manages balanced mandates including Canadian and US stocks, fixed income, preferred shares. Monetary policy has a big impact on the stock market and more so on the bond market. He's all over comments from the Fed, which indicate above-target inflation is finally catching their attention. Signals are fairly clear that tapering will be faster than anticipated, with first rate hikes coming sometime next year.
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Canadian consumer. Macro backdrop is important. He likes to buy best in breed names across sectors that will be resilient to economic headwinds. He has exposure to both discretionary retail and staples. Canadian consumer has been on somewhat of a binge. Housing affordability is stretching household budgets, inflation is causing further pressure.
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Role of dividends in the share price. Yields do provide support for the share price to a certain extent, especially if the dividend is sustainable.
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Cannabis sector. All stocks respond to legislative developments, sentiment, competitive conditions. Legislative delays, competition intensifying. More states are going to open up to recreational use, and this is a huge addressable market. Question of not if, but when. You want to own the companies that will be well positioned.
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Definition of infrastructure. Pipelines, electric utilities, construction companies. Digital infrastructure such as data centres, cell towers, payment processors. Industrials like toll roads, airports, and railroads.
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Opportunities in infrastructure? It's been a hot sector for a while. We've seen valuations come up this year, especially in renewables. Pensions still have an appetite for infrastructure, which bodes well for the outlook. Still an insatiable demand for assets with contracted cashflows, low volatility, and ESG friendly characteristics. This is where infrastructure shines. Some of the weakness seen this year should reverse next year.
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Opportunities in green power? Definitely. A number of names have come off. Big drawdowns in names with high valuations such as fuel cells and hydrogen, where a lot of growth was priced in. He focuses on independent power producers, with more reasonable valuations, strong base of operating assets, and a low-risk contracted growth profile. These offer more compelling value than the high flyer energy plays.
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Big infrastructure spend in US and Canada. EU also just came out with their plan. Timing is difficult to say, but we will see a tremendous amount of investment into infrastructure over the next decade. Transportation, renewable energy, energy mid-streams will continue to see investment to satisfy the need for goods globally, as well as population growth and density into urban areas. Lots of growth ahead. It's a matter of playing the right names at the right time.
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Infrastructure ETF for an RRSP? His SCGI ETF has had a good run since inception. Broad exposure. Focus is on free cashflow generation, high barriers to entry, and regulated assets. Tax efficient monthly distributions. Yield is about 4.9%.
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Small vs. big cell towers. Small cells are little towers placed in dense urban areas. Big towers outside a city can't transmit signals without interference from buildings. Small cell business is competitive, more cumbersome, margin profile not as strong. Better way to play 5G is through the conventional tower business.
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