A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Global macro demographic trends ultimately drives consumerism and demand. As society ages and birth rates fall, we are at a time where even growth countries like India, birth rates have fallen to replacement rates. By the end of this century, 40% of the population could be over 50. There is a graying dynamic which will impact labour. Outstanding debt and demographics means that the world can't handle higher interest rates. Inflation will probably be well contained. For the next year or so, it will remain sticky. It could be the peak of inflation shortly and then it will start to come down.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Canadian job numbers. The job numbers were disappointing and may have been a reason why there were no rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. Can't get a good sense of where the economy is for a year or so. We need to get clear of the colossal spending and central bank debt monetization. These policies distorts the economical data so it is hard to read.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Feds are going to reveal inflation numbers. They tried to reassure investors recently. However, they keep walking between hawkish and dovish comments. They are testing the markets with hawkish comments.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Ukraine and Russia. The biggest factor is Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas. Can the US ship enough LNG to compensate if there are sanctions? The conflict is localized however. Probably will see some 3-5% dips and then the dip buyers will come in for bargains.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
Markets are going through a period of indigestion with massive volatility. After 10 years of high growth stocks moving to high valuations, they are starting to unwind. Sellers are being overwhelmed in the short term. Interest rates and earnings drive the market and these are going through change. Now the focus is on inflation which is the highest in three decades. Earnings have been great for two years but now costs are rising and margins are getting squeezed, However some stocks have been beaten up enough that it may be time to start buying a little for the long term. Example, he bought Lightspeed last week.
COMMENT
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. If there is an invasion in Ukraine by Russia, the sell off would be quick. Energy and gold will be good places to hide. Uncertainty is negative for markets and the way the west responds will be key. Markets settled eventually in the past, as in 2014. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsUnknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The best time to buy the market, is when markets are weak. There might be a correction, although many stocks have already corrected. However, earnings are strong and the global recovery from covid are tailwinds and there isn’t too much worry over a big correction. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsUnknown
COMMENT
Healthcare themes. Massive sector that we don't really see reflected in the TSX. Less than 1% of the TSX is healthcare, and about half of that are marijuana companies. So he really looks outside the Canadian market, mainly in the US but also globally. Pharma, biopharma, medical devices, managed care, and facilities. He's looking for companies with a 10B+ market cap outside of Canada. Companies connected to healthcare account for 13-15% of the global stock market. It's a vast industry.
COMMENT
Covid and healthcare. PZE's anti-viral draws the line in the sand to make Covid endemic and put the pandemic behind us. Everyone feels the rotations happening: growth to value, momentum into cyclical, small cap to large. This rotation isn't new to January, it was going on before. We'll have growth this year, though it's decelerating. In times when the clouds are gathering, you want companies that have good visibility of operations, good valuation, proven track record. Politically and individually, handling of the pandemic has changed sentiment towards some companies. Healthcare is shaping up to look really good for the 2022 environment.
COMMENT
Vaccine players. MRNA does have its flu vaccine coming out, single asset company, revenues are going to come off very sharply. PZE, on the other hand, has executed exceptionally well on both R&D and deployment of vaccines. Impact of Covid on the market is looking further and further away in the rearview mirror.
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COMMENT
GOOG 20 for 1 stock split. Stock split will take a while, as it has to be approved at the next shareholders meeting, which is not till July. Great opportunity for a wider distribution of shares. Volumes will go up a lot. Shares will now be more accessible at the lower value and more accessible for options. Lower price will encourage a lower strike price. Last year in general, there were more stock options traded than actual stocks, so it's a big deal.
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