A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Investing on geopolitical events. Don't buy something just because of what's happening in the world today, because those reasons may go away in short order. Same as you don't want to sell everything and go to cash today. You want to look for names that are good quality for the next 12-18 months. For example, maybe some travel names are down that you can take advantage of. He wouldn't buy defense contractors, consumer staples or gold today. Geopolitical events don't have a meaningful or lasting impact on the market. You want to take advantage of the fears in the market, but not invest in things that have responded quickly to geopolitical events.

Market concerns. Investors are nervous. Possibility that the Fed will increase rates as the economy slows. We've seen short-term rallies, but no follow-through. If you look back a year ago, we saw strong increases. It will be difficult to show Y/Y increases. If we see declines, plus moderation in inflation, the market might have to look through that and then start to recover. Expects choppiness through the next quarter. Then, it will depend on geopolitical events, economic numbers, and where rate increases are going.

Portfolio positioning. Opportunities in select sectors like energy, add on dips. Risk in price of oil due to geopolitical tensions, but even if the price does pull back, these oil companies are generating a lot of cashflow. Selectively in financials. Banks are expected to have slower growth, but will have higher earnings with higher rates. Consumer staples. Gold really starting to increase, and this should mean positive things for producers.

Seasonality of marijuana sales. Pandemic spiked sales. Numbers have come down as restrictions have been relaxed. January and February have the usual lulls after the holiday spending. Once the credit cards are paid off, people get back to spending again.

Two factors are creating volatility and sinking markets: Russian invading Ukraine and high inflation. The latter is the more powerful force. This current volatility and sell-off will continue until Russia backs down or the US Fed's Powell slays inflation.

Buy, says technical analyst Larry Williams Williams says we should be ready for a great buying opportunity in the next five trading days. Williams is looking at commercial hedgers--from data released every Wednesday on the net holdings of small and large speculators and commercial hedgers (banks, mutual funds and perhaps governments that buy and sell stocks). Then the latter get very bullish, it's almost always a buy signal. Right now, his readings (stretching back to 2018) are at peak--buy. A lot of sophisticated money has entered the money on the long side. A rally is coming. The last time his indicators showed this signal was late-March 2020 (when markets bottomed during Covid). Hold your nose and buy. The market could bottom by next Tuesday. Also, stocks are too cheap compared to the bond market, says William's data. William's indicators stocks are very undervalued/cheap vs. bonds. There will be market choppiness, but Williams expects a meaningful rally. Now is the darkest before the dawn.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine. To put it in context, the number of Russian troops gathered is 25% larger than the entire Allied invasion force going into Normandy on D-Day. Putin's not just posturing. Depends on how far he's willing to go. He's amassed enough forces to go all the way to Kiev.

Will oil continue to climb? It wouldn't surprise him at all. Russia has a very thin economy based on materials. Some call Russia "nothing more than a gas station masquerading as a state". Definite price pressure on oil. Germany has suspended a nat gas pipeline from Russia. Generally speaking, geopolitical tensions don't have that much effect on markets. And if they do, it's relatively abrupt and short-lived. 9/11 was different, as we didn't know how many attacks were going to come.

Rising interest rates. We need to have rates increase to smother inflation. Market's already priced in rises in rates. Question is whether Fed will raise 1/4 or 1/2 a point. Some say 1/2 point wouldn't be a bad thing, as it would be more of a rebuff to markets. But we don't want to tip everybody over into recession as they did in the 1980s. Gradual rate increases will be absorbed fairly well.

Opportunities. Nothing is cheap. Not many opportunities. Markets are already down 10% on the year. If we saw more jitteriness, he'd be a buyer of the S&P 500. He's been hoping for another pullback of 10-15%, so he can buy good assets cheaply, but that hasn't happened.

Bond ETF for RESP, now or wait? See his Top Picks. He sold all his bond ETFs two years ago, when he sensed liquidity issues in the market. Most bond ETFs' total returns are in negative territory.

US marijuana ETF for 2-3 years? POTX is the largest, and there are a couple of others are out there, but he doesn't recommend them.

Gold. Everyone talks about gold as being a hedge against inflation, but it's not, and hasn't been for quite some time. He doesn't own any gold. Doesn't earn interest. Performance has been lacklustre. Most gold bugs tend to be in the hysterical conspiracy realm. Not an investible asset.

Bond ETF for a steady stream of income? When you're talking about an income fund, quite often the yield is higher than that of the stocks within it. Always question the source of the yield. Also look at the duration of the bond portfolio. You can get this information on any ETF website by looking up "duration". Any medium to longer-term bonds in a rising interest rate environment are going to get clobbered.