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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
PE multiple, Canada vs. US. From last year to right now, US earnings have been revised down only about 2%, not very much. But the PE multiple went from over 22x to 15-16x, which is what led to the decline in markets, and centred on the really high multiple stocks. In Canada, earnings got revised up because of energy, and so the PE in Canada is much more attractive because of the makeup of the domestic indices.
COMMENT
US bank recommendation. She holds JPM. Largest bank, fortress balance sheet, CEO well respected. Earnings better than expected. Consumer and commercial loan growth. Their base case is a mild recession, so they built reserves. Return on tangible equity is 18%. 11.5x PE, attractive dividend.
COMMENT
Gold. Not a big investor in the sector. Doesn't own any gold stocks right now. Gold price has been strengthening, probably because the USD is weakening, an inverse relationship. Still below all-time high. Should do well with inflation, but it didn't. Inflation has peaked and will probably turn down this year. Hard to forecast the commodity price, which drives the stock. If you were desperate for exposure, she'd go with a larger producer in a safe region with multiple projects, such as AEM.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Investing Psychology Mistake: Representativeness Bias. The representativeness bias is a misconception that future patterns will resemble past ones. An investor may identify an investment as being good or bad based on its most recent price performance. This is why increases and decreases in share prices can often become overextended. If the price of a stock continues to climb higher, then investors may feel that this pattern will persist into the future, and this drives the price up further. Vice versa when stock prices decrease, as investors may feel that they will only continue to fall further. This cognitive bias helps us to explain our general belief that the sign of a top in price is when investors feel that the stock can only go up and the price decreasing is not a possibility, and the sign of a bottom is when investors feel that the price can only decrease further, and no mentions of a rebound are in sight. These types of behaviours occurred at the bottom of the stock market in 2008 and 2020, as investors sought lower prices and were using the most recent performance as an indicator for the future. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Technical analysis from Jessica Inskip who called the mid-December 2022 sell-off There's a floor of support that was established last October. The last two earnings seasons sparked rallies, because earnings were not as weak as the street predicted due to a resilient consumer. However, such rallies halted when the street worried about the Fed (rate hikes). However, those last two times, the S&P bottomed right before earnings season started. This time--now--the S&P is up, not at bottom, right before earnings season. So, an upside breakout is possible if there's a catalyst. But to have a rally, tech needs to come back (the worst-performing sector must lead a rally)--and there's room for tech to lead us higher. The S&P has now found equilibrium between a ceiling and the October floor. The S&P is well above its 50-day moving average, an encouraging site.
COMMENT
He just came from the CES tech showcase and was amazed by many innovations, like extending battery life on next-generation EV's.
COMMENT
There's hyper volatility and sticky inflation. A perfect storm. It takes time for interest rates to bite. News today says that demand is starting to slow. We need to wait for a dip before we get a rally. Funds are flowing in for RRSPs and TFSAs, which is why there is a rally in Q1. US stocks are expensive, given its strong dollar. The US has deeper recessions than elsewhere because of its thin social safety net, so he wouldn't add many US stocks now.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Mental Hurdle When Investing. Anchoring Bias: The anchoring bias is when an investor uses their information from a previous experience with a stock as a reference point for any future data. An example of this is if an investor had the opportunity to buy Stock A at $100 one year ago but did not act upon it and currently the stock price is $300. That investor, now seeing that the price has tripled, may only wish to buy Stock A close to a price of $100, as that is when they first could have bought it. The investor might feel that a share price of $300 is too expensive and that the stock price should come down to $100, however, the investors’ previous experiences are irrelevant to the share price as the company has likely continued to grow and generate revenue and become a more profitable and valuable company. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Expecting another 50 basis point interest rate hike before US Fed pauses on increases. Believes US Fed interest rate hikes have already been priced into the markets. Falling inflation numbers will provide reason for US Fed to slow rate hikes. Thinks valuations on some tech stocks still too high, and need to fall before buying.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Investing Green Flag: The Idea of Value Creation. Value creation can be roughly defined as the idea of adding significant value to the economy in a way that ignores short-term profit-oriented thinking and strives towards achieving success through a long-term vision and increasing the number of benefits to the greater population. In this sense, it is really the opposite of value extraction. We think that both investors and companies that look to achieve a value-creation philosophy can both refine their own beliefs and add value for themselves and others. This gets us to the ‘trickle-down' effect part of value creation, whereby if a company prioritizes adding value to the greater population rather than maximizing short-term profits, then the long-term benefits of this value creation can trickle-down to its investors and others. The impacts of this trickle-down effect can be much greater than the short-term benefits of a value extraction model. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
2023 vs. 2022 Great for most investors to flip the page. 2022 was a perfect storm with the war in Europe, hawkish central banks, soaring inflation, and zero Covid policy in China. Many of these elements will recede in 2023. Inflation, the market's main concern, has really been cooling over the last several months. From here, hopefully central banks around the world will pause the rate hiking cycle into the later part of this year. The economic reopening of China is huge in terms of consumer spending. We've already seen that this year, with travel and leisure stocks moving higher. It should be a pretty constructive year for equities. Going back to 1950, whenever there was a down year in the S&P 500, the next year was positive 80% of the time with an average return of 15%. Plus, we're into the third year of a presidential cycle, another positive statistic with a nearly 90% win averaging a 16.8% return.
COMMENT
7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors above 200-day MA? Yes. Signals some good technical strength. If you looked at equal weight (not dominated by AMZN and TSLA) consumer discretionary, it would be 8 sectors. Definitely seeing positive breadth.
COMMENT
Investment-grade bonds. We're finally seeing some yield out of fixed income. Corporate bonds are seeing 4-5% yields, plus potential for capital appreciation should central banks around the world pause and actually start to lower rates down the road.
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Markets ahead. Certainly, there can be more bumps down the road. But it's important for market participants to start to look forward 6-12 months out to understand where the economy will be at that point. With inflation cooling, interest rates pausing, China reopening, he thinks there can be some positive numbers coming out of the markets later this year.
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