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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Canadian banks. He owns CM, BNS, and RY. Canadian banks are not expensive. Difficulties with housing market plus slowing economy are pushing them to over-reserve. 2008 scared them. Not expensive, great dividend, oligopolies. CM has always been a difficult story. It had a great retail franchise, until investment was diverted to wealth management where it's always been playing catch up. Great businesses, will continue to do well. May suffer this year on asset management and investment banking. BNS international business sometimes gives them a higher multiple, but sometimes a lower one in times of slower economic growth. Any of them should do well for you.
COMMENT
Uranium. At an interesting level. What happened with Ukraine and Russia has put an inflection point on how we think about energy. Where do we get it from and how do we use it? This is going to help uranium. More interest in using nuclear power to meet green demands.
COMMENT
Natural gas. Spiked because of what happened in Europe. Trouble with commodities is that manufacturers adjust. In Europe, price of nat gas has gone down, even though people thought it would be a terrible winter. You had a supply shock, and then companies did what they had to do to meet demand. There's actually a lot of gas around. The price may have gone down too much. It needs to stabilize at historic levels, somewhere around $3-4, and a company should do well from there. You have to look at a company's cost of extracting and selling.
COMMENT
BOC rate increase. A bit of a surprise on the pausing after this, and the CAD sold off right after the announcement. This is the first of global central banks coming to the end of rate increases, and this will put a bit of pressure on the Fed, especially if bigger markets like Japan or England start to slow increases. Definitely, inflation's coming down, and the BOC is responding to that.
COMMENT
Effect of rate increases still to be seen? For sure. And it was raised again today, so any borrowers who've been squeezed are going to feel it that much more. They're still at a restrictive level, even if inflation does settle back to that 2-3% range, we still have that real rate healthily positive. Stock market's down 10-12% YOY, and that's the response to the slowing in the economy that we're feeling today.
COMMENT
TSX vs. S&P 500 Toronto's been benefitting from the stronger resource market. Companies like CNR and CP were strong performers until today, and now they're starting to feel that slowdown.
COMMENT
The case for equities. Still seeing strength in the real economy. That's why he's still bullish on equities. Sure, the economy's slowing. But we're not seeing a recession or large layoffs outside of particular industries. If inflation goes away, central banks can start to ease and that will help everyone out.
COMMENT
Canadian banks. Canadian banks are in a tough space right now, with slowing economy and housing. That will affect CM and BNS more. RY and TD are the gold standards of banks in Canada, and they trade at a valuation premium for that. It's always that tradeoff, valuation vs. growth & quality. He owns BMO, a nice happy medium. If you're a long-term investor, can't go wrong with TD either. New BNS CEO starts in February, and questions remain on this.
COMMENT
Natural gas price. Nat gas prices have come off significantly last 6 months. From $10 down to $3. Warm weather in some big markets, and this impacts the price more than anything. Undersupply is now closer to balance, plus ton of new production has come on in both Canada and US. Even at $3, companies like CNQ and TOU are still getting good returns. A cold snap could make the price spike. Not really bullish on it.
COMMENT
Energy names for dividends. Canadian utilities are such as ENB and TRP yield around 5.5-6%. Also consider that if you're a Canadian resident holding dividends in taxable accounts, there's the dividend tax credit. US charges withholding taxes on US dividends. GEI is also a name he owns, with a higher yield.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. What is the P/E Ratio? The price-to-earnings ratio, or otherwise known as the “P/E” ratio, is a financial metric commonly used to measure how expensive a stock is compared to its earnings. The ratio can be rephrased as the amount that an investor is willing to pay for every $1 of earnings for a specific company. The ratio involves two components; the first is the ‘P’ portion, which is the current price per share of the stock, and the second is the ‘E’ portion, which is the Earnings Per Share (EPS) of the stock. For example: if Stock A has a current price per share of $30, and an EPS of $1, then the P/E ratio is 30X (calculated as: $30 Price / $1 EPS = 30X P/E). To maintain a stable P/E ratio over time, the price must appreciate at the exact same rate as the earnings per share. For instance, for the P/E to remain at 30X in the next year, if the share price increases by 10% from $30 to $33, then the EPS must also increase by 10% from $1 to $1.1 (calculated as $33 Price / $1.1 EPS = 30X P/E). Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Investors have grown numb to the Russia-Ukraine war... We've seen a strong start to the year, including small caps. However, the last third of January is usually weaker than the rest of the month, when earnings happen. Investors were piling in in recent days before earnings, but we haven't seen consecutive days of increases which is a worry.
COMMENT
silver Silver performs from late-December into March. The chart shows this could return to 52-week highs. If the market moves back into technology, then silver will weaken. If not, then silver will rise.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Understanding time. Arguably the most common mistake investors make (aside from not taking the appropriate amount of risk) is not factoring in their time horizon when making an investment decision. A general rule of thumb to follow is that higher risk investments require a longer time horizon to realize their return potential and in the short-to-medium term, it may be a bumpy ride. This is important to understand as many investors sell out of an investment too early because they are not seeing the results they expect in the short term. Stocks fluctuate for various reasons on a day-to-day or even month-to-month basis that have little to do with a company’s underlying business performance or fundamentals. Often times it requires patience for the fundamentals to reflect in a company’s stock price. Understanding your time horizon is also essential as it largely determines how much risk one can take and what kind of assets are most relevant to own. Finally, your time horizon is ultimately a reflection of your goals and when you want to achieve them. Remembering this helps one avoid straying from their investment strategy. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
The concerns that affected the markets in 2022 are still around for 2023, but improving. Looking forward, inflation is moderating on a monthly basis and interest rates should peak this year. Also the economic slowdown along with improvement in supply chain issues means that supply and demand will be more in equilibrium. Even the shortages in semi-conductors are moderating. Valuations are cheap so it is a great time for investors to step in. A global slowdown is here and it will be muted growth at the very least. Government debt is massive but most of it was issued at very low interest rates for many years so we should not feel the real impact of this debt for a while. Deficits are moderating but still hefty. Rising inflation means debt to GDP will moderate possibly faster than thought. Corporate profits will be lower year over year and rebound in 2024.
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