A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
There's hyper volatility and sticky inflation. A perfect storm. It takes time for interest rates to bite. News today says that demand is starting to slow. We need to wait for a dip before we get a rally. Funds are flowing in for RRSPs and TFSAs, which is why there is a rally in Q1. US stocks are expensive, given its strong dollar. The US has deeper recessions than elsewhere because of its thin social safety net, so he wouldn't add many US stocks now.
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Mental Hurdle When Investing. Anchoring Bias: The anchoring bias is when an investor uses their information from a previous experience with a stock as a reference point for any future data. An example of this is if an investor had the opportunity to buy Stock A at $100 one year ago but did not act upon it and currently the stock price is $300. That investor, now seeing that the price has tripled, may only wish to buy Stock A close to a price of $100, as that is when they first could have bought it. The investor might feel that a share price of $300 is too expensive and that the stock price should come down to $100, however, the investors’ previous experiences are irrelevant to the share price as the company has likely continued to grow and generate revenue and become a more profitable and valuable company. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Expecting another 50 basis point interest rate hike before US Fed pauses on increases. Believes US Fed interest rate hikes have already been priced into the markets. Falling inflation numbers will provide reason for US Fed to slow rate hikes. Thinks valuations on some tech stocks still too high, and need to fall before buying.
COMMENT

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Investing Green Flag: The Idea of Value Creation. Value creation can be roughly defined as the idea of adding significant value to the economy in a way that ignores short-term profit-oriented thinking and strives towards achieving success through a long-term vision and increasing the number of benefits to the greater population. In this sense, it is really the opposite of value extraction. We think that both investors and companies that look to achieve a value-creation philosophy can both refine their own beliefs and add value for themselves and others. This gets us to the ‘trickle-down' effect part of value creation, whereby if a company prioritizes adding value to the greater population rather than maximizing short-term profits, then the long-term benefits of this value creation can trickle-down to its investors and others. The impacts of this trickle-down effect can be much greater than the short-term benefits of a value extraction model. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
2023 vs. 2022 Great for most investors to flip the page. 2022 was a perfect storm with the war in Europe, hawkish central banks, soaring inflation, and zero Covid policy in China. Many of these elements will recede in 2023. Inflation, the market's main concern, has really been cooling over the last several months. From here, hopefully central banks around the world will pause the rate hiking cycle into the later part of this year. The economic reopening of China is huge in terms of consumer spending. We've already seen that this year, with travel and leisure stocks moving higher. It should be a pretty constructive year for equities. Going back to 1950, whenever there was a down year in the S&P 500, the next year was positive 80% of the time with an average return of 15%. Plus, we're into the third year of a presidential cycle, another positive statistic with a nearly 90% win averaging a 16.8% return.
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7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors above 200-day MA? Yes. Signals some good technical strength. If you looked at equal weight (not dominated by AMZN and TSLA) consumer discretionary, it would be 8 sectors. Definitely seeing positive breadth.
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Investment-grade bonds. We're finally seeing some yield out of fixed income. Corporate bonds are seeing 4-5% yields, plus potential for capital appreciation should central banks around the world pause and actually start to lower rates down the road.
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Markets ahead. Certainly, there can be more bumps down the road. But it's important for market participants to start to look forward 6-12 months out to understand where the economy will be at that point. With inflation cooling, interest rates pausing, China reopening, he thinks there can be some positive numbers coming out of the markets later this year.
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Will the beginning of the next presidential election cycle later this year cast a shadow over markets? Not sure. Stats show that the third year of the presidential cycle is the best, and the fourth year isn't too bad either. There will be volatility and bumps along the road. If there's no recession or a soft one, maybe the markets oversold last year and there's an opportunity going forward. Instead of growth, he prefers the value side, which has been outperforming since late 2021. That's why the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is performing well relative to the S&P 500 Index.
COMMENT
Sectors right now? Energy, financial services, and healthcare are his top sectors right now. Energy was a strong winner last year. Still likes energy, it's his largest weighting. Last year's outperformance from energy won't translate to this year, but it will still be one of the better performers.
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CDRs. Hedge against the currency. More importantly, you get estate planning benefits for wealthier investors by avoiding potential US estate issues down the road. CDRs are considered Canadian content, as they're issued by Canadian banks.
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Dividends and tech names. When looking at tech, he's always said you don't want names with high dividends, as those companies should be reinvesting in their business because they have such a high growth rate. But the environment has shifted, interest rates are going higher. So you want to be a bit more cautious on long-duration assets like growth and technology. Overall in the tech market, you're still paying about 5-6x price to sales, not cheap. He'd be careful of the space at this point. Leadership names are great long-term names.
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Interest rates. There is a prospect of a slower pace of rate increases. The Fed is talking tough, which is in their interest. They have to use moral suasion to best effect. The bond market is much more dovish, signalling perhaps a rate cut late this year. No doubt that we're at the tail end of rate increases. Inflation is falling, and we're seeing marked improvement in the inflationary background. In the first 6 months of 2023, we'll see that annual number drop dramatically because we'll roll over some of the big monthly increases we had in 2022. That's very good.
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Markets. 2022 was a year of medicine being administered. With that, the patient showed some suffering. 2023 will be a recovery year, though there will be some dislocation. Transition years are notoriously volatile. When the books are closed at the end of this year, it will have been a good year.
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