A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

She's been taking profits in the tech space. Sees rotation from growth to value for the second half of the year. Be patient in adding tech. Still holding bigger names as able to weather a recession. Tech usually leads the recovery after a recession. Tech doesn't do as well when interest rates are rising. Will continue to see a bit of a cool off in that sector. Wait to add a position.

If you're a long-term investor, holding onto them is not a horrible thing. You can go through periods where they are underwater for 1-2 years. She's a more active manager, so she'll take profits when she sees them. Recently, she took profits on AMZN on valuation alone. At the end of the day, there's no harm in taking profits and waiting patiently for another entry point.

Potentially heading into a recession in Q4, she still really wants to be in quality companies with good, strong balance sheets. Stable, great businesses, not as volatile. Yes, you could squeeze some more juice out of other names, but she doesn't want the huge, rapid swings of volatility.

"Higher for longer" interest rates - theme from US Fed meeting last week in Jackson Hole. 
Question is how long interest rates will remain high.
J.Powell clear that "quarters" will measure decision time frames.
Believes J.Powell wants to be remembered as a solution to inflation. 
Not sure how markets are going to "soft land" - thinks its incorrect.
Does not think easy monetary policy will return until "pain" is felt on Wall Street & Main Street. 

Thoughts on Bank of Canada & Banking:
Planning for 1 more interest rate hike from Bank of Canada.
If US Fed raises interest rates, BOC will have no choice but to mirror.
Believes rally in Canadian bank stocks today not resilient.
Waiting for shares to fall with higher interest rates.
Bank of Nova Scotia offering value.

Next 2.5 years of J.Powell term will be pivotal on impacts of inflation.
Expecting hard line from US Fed on inflation to avoid any mistakes. 
"Higher for longer" interest rates should be investors expectation (until economy enters recession).
Believes inflation is going to be sticky, and an economic hard landing is unavoidable. 

Basic Investment Terms: Central Bank Put.

The term ‘put’ refers to an option to sell a security at a pre-specified price. This essentially puts a ‘floor’ on an asset value. This is what we mean when using the term ‘put’. The implication being that central banks and governments may have essentially put an unofficial floor on economic or financial markets.

What was interesting was not that just a single central bank acted aggressively in the Covid-19 crisis. Almost every central bank across the globe stepped up to help ensure markets functioned properly. Not only did they act quickly but they acted aggressively. The idea being if it is not enough, you might as well not bother at all and in turn err on the side of doing ‘too much’. It is clear that central banks took some key lessons from 2008.
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Tricky question. If he had a rule of 20x PE maximum, then he never would've bought Nvidia. Or consider the traditional car stocks which have traded at low PEs, but paid dividend, but that's very different from the growth and high PE of Tesla.

He learned from experience to own fewer stocks, because he made more money owning fewer stocks than many stocks. He has a rule to sell one stock before buying a new name.

An economic slowdown will continue, so fade the cyclicals. Avoid companies with weak credit ratings and balance sheets, because rates have shot up. Earnings last month were great, not as weak as expected, though down YOY in the US and Canada, though market sentiment shifted this month. September is known for seasonal weakness and past crashes.

He's been raising cash, because by the second half of September, this weakness, particularly in big tech, will be done. History says that in strong years like this, there will be a good Christmas rally.

He wasn't dovish, but neutral. Powell said he's ready to raise rates, but will first see the inflation data; there are risks, so he will be cautious. Inflation will decline.

He didn't defeat seasonal weakness. Powell just read yesterday's newspaper, and the market already priced in what he said today. The market realizes the risk that the economy stays longer than the Fed is comfortable with and the Fed will have to raise rates further. Powell is like a trader who's right--but early. Inflation will ultimately be transitory as a trillion dollars of stimulus fades out and disinflation in China that will eventually come here. Ultimately, Powell will do too much.

The market paid more attention to what Powell said than Nvidia. Powell's moves have not caused inflation while inflation has fallen. The market is down only 4% from its high, which is impressive. Also, earnings seem okay, not fantastic, as the big companies are holding their own. His comments were neutral and the market is flat. She presumes no rate hikes in September, and watch future earnings.

Big tech, including Nvidia, are vulnerable to sudden changes of sentiment and they re-rate quickly. He isn't worried about the long-term fundamentals -- AI will drive productivity. Big is losing momentum as he enter downward seasonality.