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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Markets.

The data doesn't show a downturn, but that could change so he monitors it closely. We're in that historical season where markets see a lot of chop, which coincides with both the calendar and the US presidential cycle. Everything is still intact. Technical levels haven't broken down. His thesis remains that this is a correction inside the upward-trending market.

This could change if all of sudden we see some of those levels break and a leadership change as well.

COMMENT
Small caps right now.

Whenever the market gets a little uneasy, he definitely sees it in the small caps as well. They tend to be more volatile and liquidity dries up, so they can really get pushed around. Just as with the regular market, they tend to be fairly strong from October - end of May. He hasn't seen that leadership yet in either Canada or the US. The Russell 2000 has been in a trading band for the better part of this year; if it does break out, it will probably be pretty significant.

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

If you can’t afford to invest yet, don’t.

This rule kind of seems obvious, but you might be surprised at how many people ignore it. We have seen people borrow money to invest on margin even while they have huge credit-card balances. We have watched people buy penny stocks even as they struggle to come up with rent money.

We think, instead, you should look at paying down debt as an investment in itself. Suppose you have a $5,000 balance on a credit card at 19.99-per-cent interest. Paying down that balance guarantees you a solid investment return through lower interest payments. Saving 20 per cent in charges is just as good as making 20 per cent as far as your net worth is concerned (even better if one looks at the after-tax impact).

Of course, there is nothing in the investment world these days (or ever, probably) that is going to guarantee you a 20-per-cent payback. So, you need to get your financial house in order before you consider investing.
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COMMENT

It's important to hold a diversified portfolio. In 2022, stocks and bonds both declined, which is unusual. During inflation, stocks and bonds start to move together instead of moving separately, and this increases portfolio volatility.

COMMENT

Overall, she remains optimistic about the economy. Consumer spending, making up 70% of the economy, remains robust, even though the latest travel data shows a decrease in U.S. travel and retail data has been declining too.

COMMENT

September is living up to its reputation as a volatile month for markets. But when volatility dies down, expect more M&A in the market. Also, watch for the UAW strike that could happen this week and will benefit no one in the economy. Its impact will be that deep.

COMMENT
Can gold be a hedge in a recession?

It can, but don't own gold now. You buy gold when inflation is rising (and the Fed does nothing) or there is a recession coming. She sees neither coming.

COMMENT
Disney and Charter reach deal

Content is king, but so many are producing content which is expensive to make. So, it's hard to compete in this sector and distributors have been struggling. Linear TV is dying.

COMMENT

He thinks the Fed should hike rates by another 1/2 % so the economy could reach a 2% level of inflation. There is a small window to push inflation down which will help the economy in the long run. Interest rates may stay higher for longer than optimists are thinking.

COMMENT

Investors watching CPI data coming from USA - believes moving in the right direction.
2% inflation target will require hard landing for the economy.
Moderation in housing/rental costs helping inflation.
Higher oil prices generally not helping tame inflation.
US Federal Reserve requirement to raise liquidity will increase bond supply.



COMMENT

Telecommunications companies moving inversely to big tech due to higher debt loads(higher interest rates increase costs).
When interest rates fall, telecommunications sector will benefit.
Shifting consumer tastes(streaming) pushing traditional telco companies valuations down.

COMMENT

Believes speculative uplift in marijuana stocks in the future.
Not selling cannabis sector at this time. 
Lots of value in various cannabis stocks and ETFs.

COMMENT
Educational Segment.

A.I. & ETFs:
 
A.I. creating new ETFs that filter data in order to try and beat S&P 500.
So far - A.I ETFs are having a tough time beating the markets.
Derivative structure ETFs compared to traditional 60/40 portfolio appear to have same outcome.
Investors will have to be patient in order to learn impact of A.I. on investing. 

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP):

For parents saving for their children's post-secondary education, the RESP is an invaluable tool. Contributions to an RESP are not tax-deductible, but the government offers the Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG), matching a portion of contributions. Investment growth within the account is tax-deferred, and when the beneficiary enrolls in post-secondary education, withdrawals are taxed at their lower tax rate. Additionally, the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) offers extra grants to eligible families.
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COMMENT
copper outlook

Demand will continue growing because EVs need it. Also, supply/demand is mismatched because it takes 10-12 years to get a new mine going.

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