Seasonal Investing: - As a seasonal investor, you would take small investments and rotate through the different sectors of the market. When does oil too well, when does Gold do well, when does technology do well etc.? You end up with a basket of these and you are averaging out over time. If you can get 70%-80% of those trades working, then you will be in the market.
Gold: - Has been a fairly reliable trade every fall. About 70% of gold is consumed by jewellery. India has a Diwali festival, which has a huge consumption of gold. Fabricators start to buy the gold in July, which tends to drive gold up until the end of September. He is a Bull on gold and thinks it will go back above $1000.
Oil: - Trade between Feb 5th and May 9th has been a very reliable time to trade. 23 of the last 25 years has been positive and beaten the market. What is actually happening is that the oil refineries are producing more and more gasoline for the summer driving season. The next opportunity that occurs is basically in July, which is when they refineries are starting to produce oil for the heating season.
Food Companies: - What is happening here is that they are being squeezed and are having difficulty passing on price increases. What you want to see is a good solid name with a lot of Brand in the industry. Food tends to be in the consumer staple industries, which is a good place to be at this time.
Market: - Not sure the market has bottomed yet.
Financials: - His computer models are reflecting a serious deterioration in earnings estimates on US financials. Model price has gone substantially below some of the big banks. Huge headwinds going forward, so trade, not Buy, Canadian and US financials.
Energy: - Most mispriced sector in the market. There have been substantial increases in earnings estimates in the last 2 weeks. Values, especially Canadian, have not reflected the increases.
Market: - Market is moving higher. Jan/23 climax selloff marked a significant bottom. Went through a bottoming out process that ended March 17. A lot of selling has been done and a lot of companies continue to grow their earnings and sales. Most stocks are recovering. Stay away from financials. Junior resource stocks continue to be in a terrible Bear market. Doesn't know what it will take to get them out, so stick with large caps of over $10 billion market cap trading at least 7 or 8 hundred thousand shares a day.
Canadian Banks: - He is playing the junkier end of the spectrum such as Bank of Montreal (BMO-T) and National Bank (NA-T), the ones where people have over discounted problems. Treat them as trades. (Canadian Imperial (CM-T) has one more shoe to fall. Buy this one on the news.)
Materials: - There is huge non-North American demand for metals and materials. A lot of these stocks are a great buying opportunity. Chart shows an upward trend, which is fairly strong.
Energy: - Energy stocks are a little tricky as they can be subdivided further. You have large caps (which are doing really well) as well as smaller service companies and drillers etc. Chart shows positive results but the larger companies drive this. Some of the smaller companies are bottoming out. Very positive signs. Thinks people shorting oils are going to get burnt.
Canadian Natural Gas: - This market has seen a great run in the last couple of months with prices now close to $11. Still thinks it's under priced relative to European’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). A great area right now for investors to look at. Storage levels and inventories are still low.
Water Sector: - A fantastic area for long-term investors to be looking at for their portfolios. This is a significant area of need. Not water filter or bottling companies, but companies that are creating the water infrastructure and providing fresh water sources to the global population. This will be important for over the next 10 to 15 years.
Canadian Preferred Shares: - The key that you always want to look at with preferreds is higher quality. The risk is always going to be around. Not at the top level of a bond but if you go with companies that are not going bankrupt, you get paid very well.
Gold: - Feels it is going to be $1200 to $1500 12 to 18 months out. Will be increased demand from countries globally. Also inflation is back with us significantly higher than currently expected. It could go lower in the near term depending on how strong the US$ is.
Base Metals: - People are so concerned about the US economy and demand for metal and its price will drop. It is just not happening. Chinese demand for metals is very strong. Whether the US economy grows by 2% or falls by 2% it will have very little impact on metal prices.
Sprott IPO: - Eric Sprott has an extremely good track record and is a very good manager. Coming off a very good streak here because he has been forefront in the commodity plays. From the pricing he has seen proposed on it, he would find it a little bit rich.