Canadian banks: Best in the world. Next week we will see if they have any European exposure. They look cheap. There is some upside. Owns national, Royal and Scotia.
At an opportunistic time, how would you play the gold sector? Gold is a good place to be in times of turmoil but really depends on why you want to own gold. If it's for safety, you should be in physical gold or ETF bullion. However, gold stocks have more leverage to the upside in gold prices.
Market. He has moved his clients to something like 40%-50% cash. Stocks are high income and defensive. Also has a hedge on the market of about 10% through the S&P/TSX 60 Bear+ ETF (HXD-T).
Greece affecting the US economy? Has already reached the US economy but hasn't erupted yet. A number of the US states are already in a debt crisis led by California.
Gold. One of the problems is the fate of the euro. Thinks it will survive but probably at a lower level. Given the government debt crisis globally, people are going to lose faith in paper currency and will look for a real store of value, which is gold. He is looking for $1200-$1500 by year-end.
Oil. Developing nations are the major demand factor in the oil market. He is considering the Nymex Oil Bull+ ETF (HOU-T) and if oil got much cheaper and the stock market showed signs of stability, he would definitely buy it.
Natural gas. This is a great story going forward. In 2013, the US government is going to impose very heavy penalties on companies that don't meet certain emissions standards. Think the demand for natural gas will get much stronger.
The market has started a correction. It became over bought. Timing indicator suggests a correction until the end of May or beginning of June. After that the market will rally. We are into a ‘V’ right now. Another dip will come in October. Beyond that we will have a good time until at least the end of the year.
Canadian banks. The next big catalyst that has to happen for Canadian banks is when we see the first dividend increase. That will be your “all clear” sign that the banks are comfortable with their balance sheets and loan losses. He prefers Royal (RY-T) and Scotia (BNS-T).
How far out would you go when writing Calls? Depends on what you are trying to defend. When gold started to cross $1200 he was writing 1-month calls against the Gold ETF (GLD-N) on the expectation gold would come off. Generally, 3 months is what he would be looking for.
The Greece bailout is just kicking the can down the road. The market is awaiting details of the bailout. The market wants to see the details of a plan.China has inflation up the most in 18 months. In the housing market there could be a bubble. But overall it will be continued growth of the middle class and infrastructure spending.There is a potential for a double dip because of Greece contagion and UK debt. The US stands to be at the same point by year-end. Every market is negative year to date except North America. We are benefiting because the rest of the world is worse off.