A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. Seeing a fair amount of fear in the markets but seeing a couple of bull markets. Commodities have been in a bull market since 2001/2002. There are only two in youthful bulls. Lumber bottomed in ’09 and Nat Gas last year. If you want to get attached to the boom, then gravitate to those two.

There are a couple of Canadian financials that are leading. He feels they are still leading. Even lifecos are starting to recover now. As long as the financials are showing strength, the bull market is in tact. Advances less Declining stocks are a good indication of market breadth. Peaked in March. Recent sell off has brought the S&P down but not so much the advance/decline line and that it is because of lack of bids, rather than pressure on selling, which is a temporary situation.

GOLD. In a 12 year bull rally, has been consolidating for the last year. Most of the easy money has been made. It is extended. The latter half of 2011 and first half of 2012 is a descending triangle. Gold may have a little upside.

S&P – Where is the support. Starting 2010, he wave counts and gets 5. The points in 2011 are very important. Support was at 1345. The next support is 50 points below that. He thinks we should have a rally soon.

Markets. Lots of good buying opportunities. He is seeing better value in income securities than in a long time,. In this market there is some downside risk. Align yourself with companies with good management and strong balance sheets and can take advantage of good buying opportunities also. Some investors are selling US dividend stocks because of the possible increase in capital gains tax in the US. Thinks there will be some consolidation opportunities coming. Thinks we can’t get pushed over the fiscal cliff. Either it will be permanent put into place over the next month or they will kick the can down the road.

Markets. We thought when we got through the election that the market would focus on fiscal cliff. When there is uncertainty, people aren’t willing to pay high prices. Through the end of the summer he positioned pretty defensively. Growing dividend yields is a key theme. He is very defensively positioned and has some cash. Short term pullbacks can turn into longer term declines. His view is that we are at risk of hitting a stall speed in the recovery. Europe hasn’t helped. 7:1 companies guided lower recently.

Rare Earth Companies: it would take an awful lot for him to buy in this sector. This is not the time to bottom fish here. One of the weakest performing groups in the market. Bottom fishing is not his specialty.

Markets. Market was upset today. Eurozone is in recession but we already knew that. Retail sales figures were on expectation. After Obama’s speech it went down and he thinks it is mostly fiscal cliff. Thinks his speech should have been taken as a positive but it wasn’t. Is surprised it came off as much as it did. His long term strategy calls for better US housing, slow but positive growth after you avert the fiscal cliff. He has some cash and will soon make some long term purchases.

Markets. Canada’s budget won’t be balanced for another year. Our real estate bubble is in the early stages of collapsing. We are going to be in for a tough time on the government revenue line. Home prices will slide by about 30% in some areas.

Markets. Now that the election is over we know who is in power. Both parties are aware that they cannot put the US back into recession. When they have a deal, she expects the market to take off if we see positive signs. She had trimmed some positions. She is not rushing back into the market but did some specific buying. She has a watch list and when there is an overreaction to something, she takes an initial position.

Markets. It is all about the fiscal cliff. Usually after the election you get a celebration, but a little pop into the end of the year and he thinks that is coming but markets are having to digest what is happening with the fiscal cliff and taxes. They are going to kick the can down the road. Thinks they will hammer out a compromise.

Education Segment. Fiscal Cliff. Base line scenario is US will have a $612 billion deficit and there will be deficits through 2022. Alternate forecast - if they do nothing it will be $1 Trillion Deficit next year. Debt will get downgraded. 2013 does not look good, not globally either. There will have to be a deal. If they raise the dividend tax, that could hurt the stock market, but he thinks instead they will increase the tax on the rich. See http://www.cbo.gov/

Markets. He is not focused on the fiscal cliff. They are politicians and will straighten it out. It’s just continuing to kick the can down the road. With Europe it is structural, though. The solution or part of it is more monetary easing. They are continuing to press the print button. He would go back to the BRIC nations. China is also going to do some monetary pumping or priming.

Markets. Environment for oil and gas stocks is very challenging. Europe, fiscal cliff. Many things to be nervous about. Statement today claimed US will be energy independent by 2018. Some names have been sold off for reasons of fund for reasons that are fund flow driven rather. For well over two years mutual funds have been redemption mode. People have been holding on to their money. That factor has been driving the overall market. Investors want yield and many oil and gas companies don’t provide a yield. US and European investors are not investing in Canada. There have been consistent headwinds. He thinks there has to be a catalyst to change that. We need a macro economic change – evidence that China is not slowing down any more. People need to be more confident that the world is not ending.

Markets. Investors have shown they are quite fearful. Obama sincerely looks like he is ready to compromise on the fiscal cliff for once. Recently he has had a little bit more cash than normal.

Markets. You can toss a coin as far as where the markets are going. The markets are not telling him a lot. The US election is out of the way after 3 years of leading up to it. There will constantly be negative news but nothing out there that will shock the markets. He has started to troll this week. We are moving into tax loss season and that is his time to buy.