A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. January 2012, January 2011 and January 2010 data was improving globally. Investors bought on that and were very disappointed each summer. Feels it is different this time in that you have 1) US housing on board 2) better ECB backstop now 3) better growth in China. Politically there is a Federal Reserve that doesn’t have an expiry date on their purchases. The implication of this is that you are going to see money tease out of the bond market over the next year, which will have implications for various sectors.

Your criteria for Protection Strategies? Do you use Put buying versus Call selling and Stop Losses? Does your criteria change based on the size of the trading range, volatility of the stock or pays a dividend or not? Uses all of the above. You want to be really efficient. Need to have a toolkit in place. You want to have an option ability in place so that you can empower it to do things when it’s logical. Put Buying is usually expensive and the Put usually expires worthless. Selling Calls is easier. You get the premium but it really depends on the situation.

What are some of the key parameters to look for in a potential stock? Price and safety and it is really nice if you have a dividend yield that is sustainable. It really comes down to price. Even if it is not a very good thesis, but is mispriced below where it should be, that’s an opportunity.

Double bull and bear ETFs. If the markets are trending, then holding them works in your favour. But if they go up and down on the way up, it really hurts the NAV in rebalancing.

Markets. Market valuations overall, particularly in the US, are at little on the elevated side. Believes that all this global quantitative easing stuff are going to keep values up and we are going to find out it is not a “stock market” but is a “market of stocks”. Feels there are some sectors that you can do well in this year. Thinks there is a bubble forming in the income stocks. People are so starved for yield that they are starting to reach for it.

Is Short Selling ethical? A lot of people think short selling is not ethical but he thinks it has a definite place in the market. If you feel that a company is overvalued, or that the company has been putting out unethical numbers, why not say that you dislike this and take a position.

Do you use trailing stop loss orders on any stocks that you own? He doesn’t use stops at all. Thinks they are a fools game. If the stock goes down in value he wants to know why and if he should take a tax loss. If he had used Stops, many of his big money winners would not have happened.

Do you recognize any companies in the Healthcare Insurance Field that has great growth potential in the US in the next 6-12 months? He never knows within 6 to 12 months. Right now he has none on his list.

Markets. It’s still a 4 year old bull market. They end on Euphoria, which we are a long way from. Fixed income yields are very low and valuations are reasonable in equities. Looks like another year like last year. Thinks Canada will move in tandem with US this year. Would rather be invested south of the border. More diversity and you won’t get hit with exchange rates. Likes global industrial companies.

Markets. Not quite out of the woods but improving economic data coming out of the US, especially from housing and employment numbers. China seems to be coming back into the fold with some traction on manufacturing, etc. Pretty good solid foundation for equities to continue to grind higher this year. Sovereign debt fears have kind of dissipated to certain extents, by evidence of the lower yields in Italy and Spain. Looking at the technicals, in the very near-term, we are little bit overbought. There are some risks that are coming such as the looming US debt ceiling. As well there are upcoming presidential elections in Italy in February. Continues to prefer US equities over Canadian equities. You want to position yourself more in cyclical sectors rather than defensive sectors. Expects emerging markets to gain some traction this year as well.

Energy. We are about to enter the sweet spot, which runs from Jan 18 through until the middle of June on the Canadian sector but this year it is coming in earlier than expected. Technicals are already starting to turn positive. Fundamentals are also starting to look very good. Average gain of S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index from Jan 18-June 15 is 10%.

Technicals. As soon as the CES show is over in Las Vegas, technicals start to drop. It has already started this year. There is one stock that has had a big impact on that and that is Apple (AAPL-Q) but the whole sector has been under pressure since that show was over.

Markets. Really hinges on the US consumer. Now that the housing market has stabilized and is starting to come back, the big surprise will be how strong the US consumer really is. As US housing improves it continues to strengthen their banks and is a huge employment generator. Has started to put money into both Europe and emerging markets on the expectation that there will be pretty good global growth in 2013. He would describe the overall mood of investors as timid. Fundamentals are actually quite good but PE multiples are very low so risk premiums are high so there is an overreactnion to things like fiscal cliffs. There are political things that can affect day to day so it will be volatile.

Do ETFs have a DRIP program? Just about all of them have Dividend Re-Investment Programs. He uses this for a lot of his portfolios. For an RRSP, this is a great thing because you don’t have to worry about cash building up in your portfolio. (You do have to request them.)

Nuclear energy ETFs with 3 to 5 years of term? On things like nuclear and uranium, he would rather go with a stock.