Stockchase Opinions

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA BMO REAL RETURN BOND INDEX ETF ZRR-T DON'T BUY Sep 16, 2024

Real return bonds are challenging to the average investor. The distribution of these is low, plus the inflation rate. This asset class sometime anticipates inflation and prices it in, and if not, there's big downside risk. Take advantage if it underestimates inflation. Is also serious interest rate risk.

$14.740

Stock price when the opinion was issued

E.T.F.'s
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

SELL ON STRENGTH
It is all about inflation expectation and break even analysis. Inflation expectations have spiked considerably. We may not realize these levels for the next few years. Would not chase here. Hasn't added to it. Better to sell into strength since there are more deflationary forces. Have to watch wages. If they increase significantly, there will be real inflation.
COMMENT
Real return bonds with rising inflation expectations will protect you. They have a small coupon and you get a top up that is the actual inflation rate. Tricky and on average do not recommend to average investors. If you believe there is sustained inflation, you could buy it. This is a vehicle that needs to be traded.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 17/20, Down 4%) Recommended this when he thought there was inflation coming. Real return bonds are set to offset the rising inflation. It does this with an inflation compensation in the price of the bond. The capital gets the CPI inflation tacked on.
COMMENT
Fine if you need to be in fixed income. But do you need to be in fixed incomes? There is duration risk. The challenge with real return bonds is that you get a higher payout but there is no guarantee for the inflation rate so returns may not be good. These anticipate rates but do not follow it.
DON'T BUY
Would not recommend buying. Doesn't like real return bonds. Doesn't use this style of bond.
PARTIAL BUY

If you want inflation protection and bonds. They take the CPI and add a spread. It's about inflation expectations. So if they're robust, they're already reflected in the bond price, then you won't see a big pop in the ETF price. Conversely, if they're underpriced, this ETF can perform. Real return bonds have struggled. Own this in a registered account to avoid tax headaches. You should own real return as well as nominal bonds. But don't go all-in in real return bonds.

PARTIAL BUY

It's been a tricky year, but part of your bond portfolio that you really want in there. Longer term, these ones give you a coupon rate along with whatever the CPI is. Accounting is a bit funny, so owning them through an ETF and in a registered plan makes sense. Tax calculation tricky outside a registered plan.

Adds protection during inflationary shocks. Nice complement to your bond portfolio, just an allocated piece of it.

DON'T BUY
Why is the dividend falling?

Designed to protect from the ravages of inflation. The real return rate itself is highly variable, now they're under 2%, and they were negative a couple of years ago. Long duration, low coupon, nominal yields, risky. A messy security. Worst performers in the bond market last 3 years, by far.

COMMENT

Real return bonds are often misunderstood. They offer inflation protection, because they offer both an inflation and interest rate component (tracking both). So, if inflation ticks higher, these go higher. However, they underperform during low inflation. There's much talk of Trump's tariffs being inflationary, but part of his plank is deflationary. If you predict the former, you want some of ZRR.